Tarcísio leads in SP with 46%, and Haddad has 30%, points out Datafolha

Three other radical left candidates, Vera Lúcia (PSTU, 5%), Vivian Mendes (UP, 4%) and Carlos Machado (PCB, 4%), are surprisingly tied for third place, albeit distant. In theory, they take for themselves 13% that could be disputed by Haddad. 8% say they vote blank, null or for no one, while 3% are undecided.

Tarcísio collected 52% of the valid votes, which exclude blank and null votes and are used by the Electoral Court to count the result of the election, compared to 34% for Haddad. To win in any round, the candidate must have 50% of the valid votes plus one.

The margin of error of plus or minus two points and the distance of the election, when the declaration of blank and invalid votes is historically greater, do not allow us to say that he would win the dispute in the first round if it were held today.

This survey, carried out from Wednesday (1st) to Friday (3rd) and registered with the Electoral Court under codes SP-01703/2026 and BR-06481/2026, is the first with the pre-candidacy scenario consolidated in the state. 1,608 voters were interviewed in 71 cities.

In relation to the previous round, in March, several names from Haddad's camp left the contest. Marina Silva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (MDB) will run for the Senate, Márcio França (PSB) will be his vice-president and Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) will remain on Lula's (PT) presidential ticket.

Already in the political spectrum close to Tarcísio, Paulo Serra (PSDB) and Kim Kataguiri (Missão) gave up fighting the campaign.

Since then, Haddad left the ministry and ran as a pre-candidate. As a result, spontaneous mentions of his name as the preferred candidate rose from 2% in March to 8% now, and 1% say they prefer a PT candidate. Tarcísio fluctuated from 22% to 21%, while 3% say they vote "for the current governor" without nominating him.

In a possible second round, Tarcísio remains ahead of Haddad. The governor has 53% compared to 37% for the PT member, a stable scenario in relation to the previous survey.

The PT member is also more rejected by São Paulo residents, with 47% saying they would never vote for him. 29% of those interviewed said this about the governor.

The numbers show the size of Haddad's challenge, who once again received a mission seen by many as almost impossible on behalf of President Lula, who needs a strong platform in São Paulo, the largest electoral college in the country.

In 2022, Haddad faced Tarcísio, receiving 36% of the votes in the first round and 45% in the second, insufficient numbers to win, but which helped Lula to defeat Jair Bolsonaro nationally, the godfather of the then unknown former Minister of Infrastructure.

As is customary and revealing of the more conservative profile of the São Paulo electorate, the PT has more difficulty in the interior than in the capital, where it has already won three mayors since redemocratization.

In the interior, which accounts for 53% of the state's electorate, Tarcísio has 49% of the total votes, compared to 26% for the former Minister of Finance. In the capital and metropolitan region, responsible for the remaining 47% of voters, the advantage drops, with the governor scoring 43% to 35%.

In an effort to try to popularize his name in the interior, Haddad will have his name confirmed as a candidate at a convention on the 25th to be held in Ribeirão Preto, a city that was once a PT stronghold.

Using the reverse logic, the Republicans will launch Tarcísio for re-election on August 1st at an event at the Ibirapuera gymnasium, in the capital. The city will first host the convention of Lula's main rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), an ally of the São Paulo governor.

The electorate profile of the main competitors remains unchanged. Tarcísio performs above his average among men (52%), over 60 years old (51%), the most educated (49%), evangelicals (56%) and the richest (from 50% to 63% among those above two minimum wages).

The governor is preferred by the immense majority of those who voted for Bolsonaro in the second round of 2022 and among those who choose the son of former president Flávio in this election, 79% and 77% respectively.

Haddad, on the other hand, registers a more homogeneous voting intention among the large groups. He has less loyalty among the Lulista electorate than his rival does with the Bolsonarista: 62% of those who voted for Lula in the last election and 66% of those who intend to do it again this year support him.

The former president in prison, convicted of an attempted coup d'état, is a more effective electoral campaigner than Lula in the state. 27% of respondents say they would definitely vote for a Bolsonaro candidate, while 22% say they might do so and 49% reject the idea. In relation to the current president, the rates are 19%, 23% and 54%, respectively.

In the lower group, the three names of left-wing parties draw special attention in the segment of young people aged 16 to 24, where they have 29% of voting intentions, even though the group only represents 13% of the total sample.

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