Itaú reduces GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.1% to 1.9% and for 2027, from 1.7% to 1.5%

Regarding this year's GDP review, the institution states that the forecast considers the most recent data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for May, as well as the coinciding indicators and the IDAT-Activity for June. “Together, they suggest a gradual loss of dynamism in the economy throughout the quarter”, says the report signed by Itaú’s chief economist, Diogo Guillen.

According to data collected by the bank, Itaú's tracking for GDP in the second quarter of 2026 indicates an increase of 0.5% at the margin, with seasonal adjustment, and an increase of 2.0% in the annual comparison. Although the result still suggests resilience, it was below what the institution previously projected, especially given the strong fiscal impulse estimated for the period.

For the second half of 2026, Itaú maintained its deceleration assessment, with growth projections of 1.9% in the third quarter and 1.8% in the fourth, reflecting the loss of traction from the fiscal stimulus and the lagged effects of the contractionary monetary policy.

Regarding the revision of GDP for 2027, the institution attributes the adjustment to the incorporation of a strong El Niño scenario, with a negative impact on agriculture. This influence should occur, especially, due to a possible failure of the corn harvest, while soybean production should remain stable. The bank also expects that the contribution of fiscal policy to growth will slow down next year, although it will remain positive.

In the labor market, Itaú maintained the unemployment estimate at 5.7% in 2026 and raised the projection for 2027 from 6.0% to 6.1%, in line with the GDP revision.

Revenue pays R$4.6 billion in the third batch of IR refunds

More than 2.7 million taxpayers receive the credits this Friday. The batch closes the regular refund queue for 2026, while statements with pending issues or inconsistent bank details continue to await regularization