Lula leads in the 1st and 2nd round, shows research, which brings a tighter dispute against Caiado

The closest confrontation would be against the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). Lula appears with 45% of voting intentions, compared to 40% for his opponent. Another 13% would vote blank or null, and 2% did not know how to answer.

Against senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), the president reaches 48%, while the parliamentarian registers 41%. Blanks and nulls total 10%, and 1% did not respond.

Lula would also beat former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo), by 46% to 37%, and influencer Renan Santos (Missão), by 46% to 32%.

In the second round against the PT, Caiado would receive the support of 76% of Flávio's voters, 92% of those who would vote for Zema and 91% of Renan's supporters.

Alfa Intelligence heard 2,700 voters across the country. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.

The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-04488/2026.

First round

In the stimulated first round scenario, Lula leads with 43% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio, with 29%. Whitewash appears with 7%; Zema, with 6%; Renan, with 3%; and psychiatrist Augusto Cury (Avante), with 1%.

Other candidates account for 1%, while 8% would vote blank or null and 2% did not know how to answer.

Together, Flávio, Caiado, Zema and Renan reach 45%, compared to Lula's 43%, which makes a victory for the PT member even in the first round unfeasible.

Among centrist voters, Lula leads with 41%, compared to 15% for Flávio, 10% for Caiado and 7% for Zema. Another 17% of this group say they would vote blank or null.

Regional scenario

Regionally, the president's main advantage is in the Northeast, where he registers 57% of voting intentions in the first round. In a direct confrontation with Flávio, Lula would win in the region by 64% to 27%.

The senator leads in the South and Midwest.

In the Southeast, Flávio appears with 46%, compared to Lula's 42%. In the North, the president scores 48%, against 26% for his opponent.

Government Approval and Assessment

Lula's electoral advantage, however, coexists with a mostly unfavorable assessment of his government. The president's way of managing is disapproved by 51% of those interviewed and approved by 47%. Another 3% were unable to answer. The sum reaches 101% due to rounding of results.

When evaluating the Lula government, 40% of those interviewed consider the management to be excellent or good, while 46% classify it as bad or terrible, a negative balance of six percentage points. Another 14% rate the government as regular.

In the detailed evaluation, 18% classify the government as excellent and 22% as good, totaling a 40% positive evaluation. Another 14% consider the management to be regular. The negative evaluation totals 46%, with 11% being bad and 35% being very bad.

The research also shows that dissatisfaction with the federal government is not yet fully converted into support for an opposition candidacy. Flávio has 56% of voters who disapprove of the PT administration and 55% of those who consider that Lula does not deserve to be re-elected. The rest is divided between the other candidates, Lula and the blank and null votes.

Approval is higher in the Northeast, where it reaches 60%, among women, with 50%, and among young people aged 16 to 24, with 56%. The president also obtains better results among voters with lower income and education.

Disapproval reaches 64% in the Midwest and 60% in the South, in addition to being higher among men, evangelicals and people with higher education.

Resistance to the president's continuation also exceeds support for his remaining in office. For 53%, Lula does not deserve to be re-elected, while 44% defend his re-election. Another 3% were unable to answer. Despite this, Lula concentrates 90% of voting intentions among those who approve of the government and 94% among those who consider that he deserves to win a new term.

Lula has 41% of voting intentions in the 1st round; Flávio appears with 35%

PoderData/Aya survey interviewed 2,400 people across the country, between the 26th and 29th of July