Dollar has a slight increase and the Stock Exchange retreats with Focus and the Middle East on the radar

In the Focus bulletin released this Monday, economists reduced their forecast for the basic interest rate at the end of this year for the first time since March. Now, the expectation is that the Selic will end 2026 at 13.75%, a drop of 0.25 percentage points compared to last week's survey.

On Friday (31), the Ibovespa advanced 0.47%, to 177,999 points, in a session marked by operational problems at B3, which delayed the start of negotiations by almost three hours.

This Monday, at 1:51 pm, the Ibovespa fell 0.46%, to 177,173 points, pressured mainly by the shares of Petrobras and Vale, which are among the biggest drops in the index.

According to Otávio Araújo, senior consultant at ZERO Markets Brasil, the Stock Exchange's performance reflects the strong decline in oil. For the expert, the drop in the commodity improves the mood of global markets by reducing the perception of geopolitical risk and alleviating inflationary pressures, but it tends to weigh on Petrobras shares, limiting a more positive performance of the Ibovespa.

At 1:53 pm, a barrel of Brent oil was trading at US$83.83, down 6.98%.

Over the weekend, United States President Donald Trump said the country had suspended new attacks on Iran in pursuit of a quick agreement to halt Tehran's nuclear ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Trump, Iran and other Middle Eastern countries called for a pause in offensives to conclude the agreement that would lead to the "immediate, complete and total" reopening of the strait and the "end of the Iranian nuclear threat." The statement was published on the Truth Social network after a call with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, a US ally.

On Wall Street, the main stock exchanges are operating higher, also driven by signs of a reduction in tensions in the Middle East. At 1:54 pm, the S&P 500 advanced 1.31%, the Dow Jones rose 0.89% and the Nasdaq gained 2%.

On the domestic agenda, Araújo states that the Copom meeting focuses attention this week, with the market looking for signs about the tone of the monetary authority in the face of inflation that is still sensitive.

The earnings season should also add volatility to business, with results from Itaú, Bradesco and Petrobras among the main highlights.

For Olívia Flôres de Brás, CEO of Magno Investimentos, this Monday's Focus Report brought an important review in expectations for the Brazilian economy. The projection for inflation in 2026 fell from 5.12% to 5.03%, while the estimate for the Selic at the end of next year fell from 14.00% to 13.75%.

"The combination reinforces the perception that the disinflation process is still ongoing and opens space for a less restrictive monetary policy", says the expert.

She highlights, however, that the projection for GDP in 2026 remained at 1.99%, while that for 2027 was revised from 1.60% to 1.57%.

With the Copom meeting scheduled for this Wednesday, the Selic review in Focus reinforces the expectation of a 0.25 percentage point cut, although accompanied by a still cautious speech given the fiscal and electoral scenario.

In the futures interest market, contracts are falling across almost the entire curve, reflecting the decline in oil. At around 2 pm, the DI (Interbank Deposit) for January 2028 was at 13.820%, with a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The contract for January 2035 was traded at 14.300%, down 0.12 percentage points.

In the United States, the ten-year Treasury yield fell 0.99%, to 4.68%.

Investors are also following the new BTG/Nexus survey, released this Monday, which shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 41% of voting intentions in a possible first round, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) appears with 37%.

The difference between the two fell from 9 to 4 percentage points in relation to last week's survey, when Lula had 42% of voting intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro, 33%.