Dollar falls and Stock Exchange retreats under pressure from retail balance sheets

Abroad, the DXY index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six strong currencies, fell 0.38%, to 99.56 points.

The Stock Exchange also ended the day lower, with a drop of 1.72%, to 172,513 points, mainly pressured by the corporate earnings season. The decline adds to the previous day, when the Ibovespa fell 1.22%, to 175,546 points.

According to Gabriel Magno, head of investment allocation and partner at AW Capital, the balance sheets of Renner and Magazine Luiza came in below market expectations, despite the challenging macroeconomic scenario already being reflected in share prices. "Companies also reduced projections for the year, which did not please the market.

In the case of Petrobras, which fell 2.99%, Magno estimates that, despite the good results and the announcement of robust dividends, the state-owned company's shares rose almost 15% in July. "I believe that today's movement reflects investors realizing part of last month's profit."

Lojas Renner shares fell 8.08% after the company revised downwards its sales projection for 2026. The company reduced its expected growth in net revenue from a range between 9% and 13% to a range of 4% to 8%.

According to the company, the reduction in customer flow in physical stores during the World Cup, at a higher intensity than historically observed, in addition to the effects of a more challenging macroeconomic scenario, weighed in on the review.

Magazine Luiza shares also fell, with a drop of 3.71%. The retailer recorded an adjusted net loss of R$50.4 million in the second quarter of 2026, reversing the profit of R$1.8 million recorded in the same period last year.

Still in the fashion segment, C&A followed the movement of its peers and fell 2.75%. The company had released its balance sheet on Tuesday (4).

The results reinforce the challenges faced by retailers in an environment of slowing economic activity. The sector has been under pressure from high household debt and more expensive credit.

Furthermore, the trajectory of interest rates continues to be on investors’ radar. At the beginning of the year, the market projected that the Selic rate would end 2026 at close to 12%.

However, with the persistence of inflationary pressures, expectations have been revised and, currently, the consensus is for a restricted cycle of cuts.

On Wednesday (5), the Copom reduced the basic interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 14% per year, promoting the fourth consecutive cut in the Selic.

In the statement released after the decision, the panel avoided anticipating the next steps of monetary policy and once again stated that the total size of the cycle of cuts will be defined "in light of new information", given the risks to the inflation trajectory.

A Selic still at a high level, combined with stable interest rates in the United States, keeps the strategy known as carry trade attractive, in which investors raise funds in low-interest economies to invest in countries with higher rates, such as Brazil, taking advantage of the interest rate differential.

In food retail, Assaí shares were also among the biggest falls on the Ibovespa. Although the company announced a net profit of R$484 million in the second quarter, an increase of 121% in the annual comparison, the company stated that food inflation once again put pressure on performance in the period and that high family debt continued to affect consumption, leading lower-income consumers to adjust their basket to preserve their budget.

On the other hand, Fleury shares rose 9.72%, driven by net profit of R$221.9 million in the second quarter, an increase of 45.7% compared to the same period in 2025.

According to analysts at BTG Pactual, the company presented a solid set of results, with strong organic growth, robust free cash flow (FCF) generation, healthy margins and significant expansion in net profit.

In the American market, this Friday's attention turned to the employment report (payroll), the main employment indicator monitored by the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank), reinforcing the perception that the North American economy is not as heated as imagined and reducing expectations of new interest rate hikes in the country, favoring emerging markets and currencies, such as the real.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the loss of 23,000 jobs in July, after job creation in June was revised downwards, from 57,000 to 20,000.

Economists consulted by Reuters predicted the opening of 80,000 jobs. The result was also below the minimum estimate, which pointed to, at least, the creation of 10 thousand jobs.

According to Leonel Oliveira Matos, market intelligence analyst at StoneX, the indicators reinforced the perception of a less heated American job market than imagined.

"As a consequence, bets that the Fed will raise interest rates in the short term are decreasing. The assessment is that a weaker labor market reduces the need for additional tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation."

The reduction in expectations of new interest rate hikes by the Fed lowers the yields on US Treasury bonds and reduces the attractiveness of US assets for international capital. "This movement weakens the dollar and favors the appreciation of other currencies, including the real", says Leonel.

American stock markets closed higher. The Dow Jones rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.62% and the Nasdaq gained 1.30%.

In the interest rate market, futures contracts ended the day falling. The DI (Interbank Deposit) for January 2028 closed at 13.78%, with a decrease of 0.07 percentage points.