The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) reported that El Niño is expected to intensify throughout the second half of 2026 and reach “very strong” intensity between spring and the beginning of summer. The analysis appears in bulletin nº 2 of the El Niño Panel 2026-2027. According to the agency, the probability of extreme events in Brazil increases, especially in the South and North regions.
Inmet predicts very strong El Niño between spring and early summer
The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) reported that El Niño is expected to intensify throughout the second half of 2026 and reach “very strong” intensity between spring and the beginning of summer. The analysis...
According to Inmet, the probability of El Niño remaining active at least until the beginning of 2027 is 100%. The “very strong” category is considered when the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean exceeds 2ºC.
The bulletin explains that El Niño occurs when the waters of the Pacific Ocean become warmer, altering atmospheric circulation on a global scale and affecting the regime of winds, rainfall and temperatures.
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In Brazil, the South region is identified as the most susceptible to the effects of the phenomenon. The forecast indicates a greater frequency of above-average rainfall, storms, river floods, floods, flooding and landslides. The rains recorded in Rio Grande do Sul in July, with floods in different municipalities, are already identified as the first impacts of the phenomenon.
According to the bulletin, the current water condition in the South requires attention, as the region does not have a water deficit in the soil. This situation favors a faster response from rivers in episodes of intense rain.
In the North region, especially in the Amazon, the scenario indicated is one of reduced rainfall, above-average temperatures and a delay in the start of the rainy season. The pattern favors the persistence of drought, reduces water availability, increases vegetation dryness and increases the risk of forest fires.
Inmet also points to a gradual reduction in river levels and the advance of drought in different sub-basins of the Amazon. If there is no significant replacement of rain in the coming weeks, the hydrological response tends to intensify, with consequences for navigation, water supply and economic activities dependent on rivers.
The Inmet bulletin projects the maintenance of El Niño until the beginning of 2027, with a greater risk of excess rain in the South and drought in the Amazon throughout the evolution of the phenomenon.
The post Inmet predicts a very strong El Niño between spring and early summer appeared first in Canal Rural.
Source: Canal Rural
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