World Meteorological Organization predicts intensification of El Niño from August

According to the WMO, El Niño is expected to gain strength between August and October and will not be the only maritime warming phenomenon in the coming months. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also predicted, a climate pattern in the west of that ocean in which the region becomes warmer on average, while the east of the ocean becomes colder than average.

"Together, these oceanic factors can amplify regional climate impacts, including droughts, floods and wildfire risks, particularly in the Indian Ocean basin. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are also expected to remain above average," the agency highlighted.

For UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the intensification of El Niño puts more fuel (fossils) on a “planet already on fire”, taken over by heat waves, forest fires and storms. "Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis. The expansion must stop. Unless we act to protect people and combat the root cause of the crisis, the dangers will become even more deadly," said Guterres.

The combination of climate change and El Niño is already being felt, as record high temperatures in Europe highlight. "We are seeing the hottest July ever recorded for this specific region. A year from now, it will be very hot in the northern hemisphere. And we will possibly have a summer like we have never seen globally", analyzed Jeffrey Shaman, a climate scientist at Columbia University (USA), to the Associated Press.

Heat must be the hallmark of this El Niño. WMO projections indicate an “overwhelming” probability of above-average temperatures in most land areas. The strongest signals extend across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand.

The rain forecast until October presents the typical patterns of a classic and intense El Niño, with wetter conditions throughout the Horn of Africa region, in parts of Central America, in southern Europe, in western North America, and in southeastern South America. On the other hand, drier conditions may be observed in the Indian subcontinent, in southern and eastern Australia, in southern Central America and in parts of the Caribbean, in northwestern South America, and in northern Europe. AFP and Reuters also shared this information.

In Brazil, the potential impacts of “Super El Niño” are already keeping experts and public and private managers up at night. Valor highlighted the expectation of another severe drought in the Amazon, which should impact logistical flow through the region's rivers. In the last El Niño, in 2023-24, the historic drought completely interrupted the traffic of large vessels through the Amazon River for months, generating additional costs and delays in the delivery of goods from the Manaus Free Trade Zone.

Another reflection of El Niño will be felt by all Brazilians on their electricity bills. The drier conditions in the North, Central-West and Southeast are expected to hit hydroelectric generation hard, forcing the activation of thermoelectric plants and making tariffs more expensive. Data from Ampere Consultoria and TR Soluções, cited by Valor, indicate that the activation of tariff flags could result in an average increase of 4.5%. Reuters also covered how companies that manage hydroelectric plants in Brazil are preparing for the coming months of drought and lower reservoir levels.