Rains in the South and gales in the Southeast reinforce the challenge of adapting to extreme weather in Brazil

“Without a doubt, Brazil is not prepared to face this wave of extreme weather events that is already with us and will only intensify over the next few years”, commented physicist Paulo Artaxo, from the University of São Paulo (USP), to UOL.

Brazil's continental dimensions represent a separate challenge in the climate adaptation effort. According to Artaxo, the federal government's power in this matter is relatively limited, as adaptation must be made at the local level, with municipalities and communities.

"We need joint work between city halls, where the population actually feels the impacts, and between the states and the federal government. There are resources for this, it's not a lack of money, but certainly many Brazilian municipalities are not properly prepared to adapt to the new climate", he highlighted.

In an article in O Globo, Carmynie Xavier, from the Climate and Society Institute (iCS), highlighted that the return of El Niño from the 2nd half of 2026 will serve as a test for the implementation of the Climate Plan, the main national strategy to guide mitigation and adaptation policies in the next decade.

“The first major test of the Climate Plan will not be at a conference, but in real life, in its ability to reduce human, social and economic losses in the next cycle of extreme events, such as the windstorm on Wednesday [29/7] in São Paulo and Rio”, he pointed out.

Climatologist Francisco Aquino, from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), highlighted to Valor that climate adaptation in Brazil is still slow in terms of infrastructure and urban planning, at a pace far below climate change. Among the measures considered urgent are the expansion of green and wooded areas, drainage to drain rainwater and the creation of green belts around cities.

The windstorm in the Southeast is an example of an extreme event that could intensify with climate change. As O Globo explained, the wind was caused by a wave bore, a phenomenon that results from the advancement of a mass of cold, dense air over a stationary hotter one, generating the shock that caused the strong winds.

According to meteorologist Ernani Nascimento, from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the phenomenon generated strong winds due to the advance of cold air, like a gust front, and also due to the influence of a gravity wave – which gave an extra boost to the wind intensity. "This type of phenomenon occasionally occurs, but never on the magnitude seen now. What happened on Wednesday was unprecedented," he said.

Data from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) cited by O Globo show that the gale was driven by gusts with double or even triple the average strength. In Itaporanga (SP), the wind reached 125 km/h; On the south coast of SP, such as in Itanhaém and Santos, gusts exceeded 100 km/h.

In the South, the tornado that hit the Giruá region last week is also an example of a phenomenon that is becoming more frequent. As BBC Brasil highlighted, Brazil is the 2nd country with the most tornadoes: until July, 81 were recorded across the country, and this is even before the height of the tornado season, which usually occurs between the end of winter and the beginning of spring.

The areas most prone to tornadoes in the country are in the western states of the South and in Mato Grosso do Sul, but the occurrence can also be observed in other states, such as São Paulo. The increase in the frequency of these phenomena may be related to two factors: the proliferation of cameras on cell phones, which facilitated recording, and climate change, which intensified the conditions for their occurrence.

"The Earth is going through a hot period, which causes an increase in storms, windstorms, heat waves, and heavy rains as well. Consequently, these microexplosions or tornadoes often occur within storms", explained Francisco de Assis Diniz, meteorologist at Inmet.