Tarcísio leads against Haddad in 1st and 2nd round scenarios in SP, points out Genial/Quaest

According to the survey, Tarcísio has an advantage against the PT candidate in both the first and second rounds.

In the first round, Tarcísio registered 41% voting intentions, followed by Haddad, with 26%. Vera Lúcia, from PSTU, registered 3% of mentions, while Carlos Machado (PCB) and Vivian Mendes (UP), 1% each. 13% are undecided, and 15% intend to vote blank or invalid or not vote at all.

The data are from stimulated research, when voting options are presented by the interviewer. In the spontaneous survey, when voters declare their vote on their own, Tarcísio registered 17% of mentions, and Haddad, 7%. Kim Kataguiri (Mission) was mentioned by some interviewees, but did not score in the compiled data. 74% said they were undecided in the spontaneous survey.

In a possible second round between Tarcísio and Haddad, the governor would beat the PT member by 48% to 32% of the votes, with 11% blank and null votes and 9% undecided. The indices have fluctuated within the margin of error of two percentage points since the last round of the survey, released in April, pointing to a stable scenario. Three months ago, Tarcísio registered 49% preference against 32% for Haddad in a possible second round.

The PT made Haddad's candidacy official last Friday, the 24th, while Tarcísio will confirm his campaign for re-election this Sunday, the 2nd.

49% associate Haddad as “Lula’s candidate” in São Paulo, while 44% consider Tarcísio to be the name linked “to former president Jair Bolsonaro”. For 53% of those interviewed, the choice to vote for governor is definitive, while 45% could change their mind, and 2% did not respond.

Senate

Former minister Marina Silva, from Rede, stands out in the race for the Senate, leading the two scenarios tested by the survey. There is a dispute for the second place, with Simone Tebet (PSB), Pablo Marçal (União Brasil) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) in a technical tie, within the margin of error, depending on the voting options presented to the interviewees.

Genial/Quaest carried out 1,650 home interviews with voters in São Paulo between the 23rd and 27th of July. The margin of error is two percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol SP-04846/2026.

Approval and evaluation by the Tarcísio government

Tarcísio de Freitas' government is approved by 55% of São Paulo residents, according to the survey. 29% disapprove of it, and 16% were unable to respond. State management is evaluated as positive by 39% of those interviewed in the survey, while 35% consider it to be regular and 20%, as negative. 6% did not respond.

São 55% os que avaliam que Tarcísio merece ser reeleito, enquanto 38% dizem que não, e 7% não responderam.

Lula tem 49,2% e Flávio Bolsonaro registra 42,9% no 2º turno, diz Atlas/Bloomberg

Atlas/Bloomberg survey shows the president with 49.2% of voting intentions, compared to 42.9% for the senator in a possible second round. Lula would also beat all other tested opponents