Meloni outlines a political future away from Trump after months of tensions and provocations

After months of tension, Meloni and Trump are experiencing a public break. The situation signals not only the failure of the Prime Minister's aspirations, who intended to have a privileged relationship with Washington, but also the weakening of Italian foreign policy.

In the coming months, Italy is showing signs that it intends to invest in relationships with medium-power countries, equally interested in reducing the degree of global instability.

With the 2027 parliamentary elections approaching, Meloni's tone is still expected to rise, at least rhetorically, against the European Union. For his plans to remain in power, Trump's name must be left behind.

Meloni and Trump have been ideological allies, on issues such as immigration and "woke culture", as she said, since before the Italian came to power, almost four years ago. When her party was dwarfed, she participated in 2019 at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference), a meeting of right-wing and far-right exponents that had Trump as the star.

When he was elected to the White House for the second time, in November 2024, it completed two years of a rare stable government by Italian standards.

Her pragmatic choices at the international level, without giving up the hard line adopted internally, placed her as a strong politician, close to the president of the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen.

The Italian was the only European leader at Trump's inauguration ceremony, in January 2025. In April of that year, she was received at the White House and praised for doing "a fantastic job" as prime minister, "one of the true world leaders".

After the initial enthusiasm passed, the two leaders found themselves on opposite sides on issues such as trade tariffs and defense spending. The differences were simmered over low heat until the beginning of this year. The Israeli and US attack on Iran at the end of February amplified the unease between Meloni and Trump, with Italy hurt by the impact of rising energy prices.

Meloni distanced himself from the military initiative, at the same time that Trump demanded collaboration from NATO allies. Italy did not allow American planes to use a base in Sicily.

From the Vatican, Pope Leo 14 issued almost daily appeals for an end to the conflict. It ended up being the supreme pontiff's target, in April, of unprecedented attacks from Trump. For the Prime Minister, the statements were unacceptable. The clash with Trump has become explicit.

According to Leo Goretti, an expert on Italian foreign policy and vice-rector of the Rome Business School, Meloni's step back in relation to Trump was also motivated by the defeat suffered in the referendum on Judiciary issues, which took place weeks after the action in Iran.

"The result of the referendum was understood as a manifestation of dissent on the part of the electorate in relation to a leader seen as very close to Trump", says Goretti. "Meloni had to distance himself, and we know that the US president doesn't like to be contradicted."

The annoyance evolved into insults. First, Trump's accusation that Meloni had begged for a photo with him at the G7 in France in June - on social media, she said it was a made-up story. And there was another offensive, before the NATO meeting, in which he insinuated that he needed to protect himself from the Italian persecution.

"I don't regret anything," Meloni said on July 8, about the "political investment" he made with Trump. "I did this out of conviction in the unity of the West." Weeks earlier, the opposition, although offering solidarity to the prime minister, had criticized Trump's "failed strategy of subalternity."

"There were a lot of foreign policy mistakes from this government," said Elly Schlein, leader of the Democratic Party.

"With Trump's election, the government's foreign policy became very opaque. They found themselves in the paradoxical situation of having in the White House a reference figure from an ideological point of view, but who in practice takes initiatives that only harm Italy", says Goretti.

The country, he says, needs a strong multilateral architecture, a solid security relationship with the US and robust European integration - issues on which Trump acts in the opposite direction. "[Since Trump's election] Meloni maintained a lower profile that made her almost disappear from the radar of international politics", he assesses.

In the coming months, in addition to working behind the scenes to repair relations with the USA, Italian diplomacy should work to interact more with middle powers, such as Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as allies such as Canada, Australia and Japan.

"All these countries, with their differences, have in common the fact that they do not benefit in any way from the global disorder," says Goretti.

At the same time, pressured by the recently launched party of former general Roberto Vannacci, with positions more to the right, Meloni may be tempted to more radical speeches against the EU. Italy is expected to go to the polls in the first half of next year.

“I expect an oscillation between occasional attacks, controversial stances against European bureaucracy, and a more transactional attitude in practice, in which an understanding is sought,” says Goretti. To see if, this time, Meloni will do well in the ambiguous position.

Trump says Meloni "begged" for photo to "improve popularity"

The North American president, Donald Trump, reaffirmed, this Saturday (20), that the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, asked him "repeatedly" to take a photograph, during the G7 meeting, after the head of the Italian Government had stated that the tycoon's statements were "totally invented".