The President of the Republic and pre-candidate for reelection, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), leads the dispute for Palácio do Planalto in both the first and second rounds, according to the PoderData/Aya survey released this Thursday, 30. In the first stage, Lula appears with 41% of voting intentions, while senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears in second place, with 35%.
Lula has 41% of voting intentions in the 1st round; Flávio appears with 35%
The President of the Republic and pre-candidate for reelection, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), leads the dispute for Palácio do Planalto in both the first and second rounds, according to the PoderData/Aya survey...
The former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 5%, followed by influencer Renan Santos (Missão), with 4%. Former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo) and psychiatrist Augusto Cury (Avante) register 3% each. Another 5% would vote blank or cancel their vote, while 4% did not know how to respond.
The survey interviewed 2,400 voters aged 16 or over in 677 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation between the 26th and 29th of July. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-07845/2026.
In comparison with the previous round, held between July 12 and 15, Lula and Flávio fluctuated one percentage point upwards from 40% to 41% and from 34% to 35%, respectively. The variations occurred within the margin of error, indicating stability in the scenario.
In a possible second round between Lula and Flávio, the PT member appears numerically ahead, with 46%, compared to 43% for the senator. The two are technically tied. Another 9% would vote blank or cancel their vote, and 2% did not know how to answer. In the previous round, Lula had 45% and Flávio, 43%.
Lula also appears ahead of Renan Santos in a possible second round, by 45% to 37%. In this scenario, 15% would vote blank or cancel their vote, and 4% did not know how to respond. Against Zema, the PT member recorded 44%, compared to the opponent's 42%, configuring a technical draw; blanks and nulls account for 10%, and 3% did not know how to answer. In a confrontation with Caiado, Lula scores 44%, compared to the opponent's 43%, also in a technical draw.
The survey also measured the voting potential of the two leaders. Among those interviewed, 36% said that Lula is the only candidate they would vote for and 11% said they could choose him. Another 49% would not vote for the PT member at all and 4% did not know how to answer.
In the case of Flávio, 31% said that he is the only candidate they would vote for and 14% admitted the possibility of supporting him. Rejection of the senator is also 49%, while 6% were unable to respond.
Source: Noticias ao Minuto
Next recommended read
This story was originally published by Noticias ao Minuto. Visit the original publication for further details.
Open original publication
