Iran rejects negotiations after Trump attacks fail

According to Iran's diplomatic spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, his country will also cease retaliatory attacks against American allies in the Persian Gulf as long as Trump does the same.

The American campaign had begun after the Republican declared null on the 8th the 60-day ceasefire that had been signed between the rivals on June 17th. The agreement ratified the freezing of the war in the region, whose most acute phase lasted five weeks after the first attack by the US and Israel, on February 28.

The US imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and Tehran said it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the war.

The new pause in fighting, which began on Friday night (24), calmed the markets a little, causing the price of a barrel of Brent crude to fall to just under US$90, after having surpassed US$100 last week.

According to multiple reports in the American press over the weekend, Trump's decision followed a warning from Dan Caine, the top US military chief. According to the general, there were no longer any targets for the specific bombings of the last few days, and there was a risk of exhaustion of anti-aircraft defense in the region.

On the other hand, Iran's retaliatory campaign was particularly punishing, hitting American bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, officially killing four service members - reports of damage are heavily censored, but images suggest that aircraft and radars were destroyed.

On Sunday (26), the US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, stated that the pause aimed to encourage negotiations, but that Trump did not rule out expanding the war. The president had made this threat last week.

By initially rejecting such talks, the theocracy seeks to establish a position of strength and claim a diplomatic victory over the Americans, given that it has resisted the campaign of attacks.

Furthermore, Tehran has seen the renewed dispute between its Houthi allies in Yemen and Saudi Arabia play in its favor, with the danger of disruption in oil exports through the Red Sea. Even though the rebels have their own agenda, the threat of seeing the straits on both sides of the Arabian peninsula closed increased the pressure on Trump.

However, there are nuances to Tehran's move. The regime did not seek to involve Israel in the current phase of the conflict, and only signaled escalation with attacks on civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, without using full force.

The Iranians played a game of patience with the US, retaliating in a timely manner. They are not interested in reopening a broad conflict, given the degradation of a large part of their forces.

On the other hand, this doesn't even interest Trump, who also hinted at escalation by attacking Iranian bridges. The war is unpopular in the US, and the Republican faces legislative elections in November at the risk of losing control of both Houses of Congress.

While statements are being made side by side, there are still loose ends in the Middle East. Iran says it still controls Hormuz and that, on Monday, it ordered six ships that were trying to leave the region without its authorization to turn around.

With this, it tries to assert its strategic objective of exercising dominance over the region and charging tolls for ship transit.

The campaign now suspended by Trump began because Tehran had fired at oil tankers that had crossed outside the route that the theocracy had established.

The crisis will be discussed by the American with his ally Binyamin Netanyahu in a meeting at the White House this Tuesday (28). The Israeli prime minister is also pressured by the electoral calendar: he faces elections in October in which he needs to present some results from his wars in the region.

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