Brazil approaches the limit of the Chinese quota, and slaughterhouses reduce the purchase of cattle Brazil has exhausted its quota for beef exports to China and is expected to reduce sales to the country until the end of the year. This, however, does not mean that there will be an excess of meat on the Brazilian market. On the contrary: the product is expected to become even more expensive in the last quarter of the year, according to economists interviewed by g1. ?? Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send to g1 China, the main buyer of Brazilian beef, adopted an annual quota of 1.1 million tons with a reduced tariff of 12%. Once this volume is reached, the tariff rises to 55%, significantly reducing the competitiveness of Brazilian meat. ?Why shouldn't meat be cheaper? At this moment, slaughterhouses are reducing the slaughter of cattle, meaning there is less meat being produced. Without an increase in supply, prices in supermarkets tend to remain high. ?What will make the price grow? The meat is sent to China on ships, on trips that last around 40 days. In January, the quota will be renewed, reopening the Chinese market to Brazilian products. Therefore, at the end of the year, slaughterhouses tend to direct production to meet Chinese demand in 2027. At the same time, consumption in the domestic market increases with the end of year festivities, which creates new pressure on prices. Understand more details about this scenario below. Food prices: what became more expensive and what became cheaper in the 1st half of the year More cattle in the pasture According to Larissa Alvarez, market intelligence analyst at StoneX, the quotas established by China changed the dynamics of the cattle market in Brazil. Traditionally, China's greatest demand occurred in the second half of the year, to meet Chinese New Year celebrations. With the creation of the quota, meatpackers began to compete for who would be able to export before the limit was reached, explains the expert. As a result, the price of live cattle reached a record of R$365 in April. With the reduction in Chinese purchases, the sector began to reduce the slaughter of cattle. In the comparison between May 2025 and May 2026, the drop was almost 3%. The trend is for an even greater decline in the coming months. Despite the reduction in slaughter, animals continue to be available for sale. Therefore, the price of live cattle is falling and is around R$330, according to Fernando Iglesias, analyst at Safras & Mercado. "As we are talking about a long-cycle activity, it becomes more complicated for Brazilian livestock farmers to cut production quickly. Decisions around this are slower", he explains. But this period of lower prices should be short-lived. In the last two months of the year, the sector tends to prepare the meat that will arrive in China in January. "The big problem in this whole story is that there will be less availability of cattle for slaughter during this period. The climate is very dry due to the upcoming super El Niño. This will impact the condition of the pasture and will further reduce availability for slaughter", he states. According to Iglesias, this set of factors should make meat more expensive in Brazil precisely at a time when domestic demand grows due to the end of year festivities. See the countries where Brazil exported the most beef in 2025; beef exports Kayan Albertin/g1 What is the price now? According to Iglesias, from Safras & Mercado, demand for meat in Brazil is low and does not support the prices paid to producers at the moment. "We even had a certain optimism regarding the World Cup, but the elimination of our Brazilian team harmed even that", he explains. According to professor Bruno Capuzzi, from Insper Agro Global, this should help keep the price of cattle lower, which could bring temporary relief to the consumer. Furthermore, according to him, collective holidays at slaughterhouses do not mean a reduction in supply on the domestic market, but only a maintenance of exported volume. For Alvarez, from StoneX, the trend is towards stability in consumer prices. Read also: Veto on Brazilian meat: government holds the production sector responsible for adapting to EU requirements Can China be replaced? In Iglesias' prediction, losing the Chinese market in the second half of the year would represent a loss of up to US$2 billion. In practice, however, the impact should be smaller, as exports will not be completely interrupted, although they should fall significantly. The tendency is also for exporters to seek new markets. According to the Safras & Mercado analyst, Brazil has already expanded sales to countries such as Argentina and Uruguay. Other countries that still export to China at reduced tariffs can also increase their purchases of Brazilian meat, whether for domestic consumption or for resale on the Chinese market. This is because, unlike Brazil, many of them are unable to simultaneously meet domestic and Chinese demand. Quotas were created by China to encourage local beef production. Currently, Chinese livestock farmers are unable to meet domestic demand, and prices remain high in the country. "China understands that, at this moment, in order to have this recovery in the sector, it will need to offer higher prices for its population. Without an increase in prices, an increase in cattle prices will not happen", explains Iglesias. On the other hand, Capuzzi, from Insper, assesses that, if prices continue to rise in China, the country could review the restriction to increase imports from Brazil. Another possibility, according to him, is to use quotas from other nations to meet domestic consumption. When the measure was announced, Brazil tried to negotiate taking shares from competing countries. However, the request was denied. READ ALSO From coffee to rice: El Niño threatens production and could raise food prices 'There is no longer a normal year': US farmers change harvest times and protect seedlings to face extreme heat Food prices: what became more expensive and what became cheaper in the 1st half of the year