Oil jumps after Iran attempts ‘surprise attack’; chip stocks slump further as AI sell-off continues – business live

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Oil is rising again this morning after the US military said it knocked down an Iranian missile barrage and worked with Saudi Arabia forces to strike sites in Iraq that Tehran-backed militias have used to launch attacks in recent days.

All that leaves a volatile backdrop ahead of today’s FOMC decision, which is the most finely poised in years in terms of market pricing. With a 32% chance of a rate hike today priced as of last night, this is the most uncertain that the market has been on whether the Fed will change rates going into a meeting since December 2018, when the eventual 25bps rate hike was about 65% priced the day before.

We’ve seen considerable volatility in the July hike pricing over the past couple of weeks, falling as low as 10% in mid-July following the soft June US CPI print but rising to as high as 38% on Monday. So with chair Warsh shying away from policy guidance, we’ve seen one regime shift compared to the past few years when markets received a steer from officials’ commentary or via the financial press.

7am BST: Aberdeen half-year (HY) results, Greggs HY, Airbus HY, Aston Martin Lagonda HY, Campari HY, Danone HY, Deutsche Bank Q2, Hermès HY, L’Oréal HY, Porsche HY, Procter & Gamble Q4/FY, Reckitt Benckiser HY, Rio Tinto HY, Standard Chartered Q2/HY, UBS Q2

9.30am BST: ONS workless households data

7pm BST: US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates

9pm BST: Microsoft Q4/FY

9.30pm BST: Meta Q2