The stock market advances and the dollar closes slightly higher with the release of the IPCA-15 and the Fed on the radar

At the day's high, the North American currency reached R$5.129. At its lowest point, it dropped to R$5.109. Abroad, the DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six strong currencies, fell 0.10%.

The Ibovespa ended the session with an increase of 0.7%, at 176,564 points. According to Nicolas Gass, head of investment allocation and partner at GT Capital, the increase in the index reflected the release of the IPCA-15 below market expectations, which, in the expert's assessment, reinforces the possibility of a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic at the August Copom meeting.

Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's decision have also dominated market attention. Vitor Kayo, senior economist at Nomad, states that, according to CME Group's FedWatch, the most likely scenario for this Wednesday's decision is the maintenance of the interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, with a 71% probability. Another 29% of the market is betting on an increase of 0.25 percentage points, for the range between 3.75% and 4%.

According to the economist, even if maintenance is the most expected outcome, the market will be paying attention to three points. The first is a possible change in the tone of the statement in relation to that released at the previous meeting, which reinforced the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation back to the target.

The second point is the possibility of disagreements among committee members regarding the conduct of monetary policy. The third is the tone adopted by Kevin Warsh, president of the Fed, at the press conference, as a tougher speech on combating inflation could reinforce the perception that an interest rate hike is close, even if it does not occur at this meeting.

In Brazil, investors' attention was mainly focused on the IPCA-15, which slowed to 0.06% in July, after registering an increase of 0.41% in June, according to data released by IBGE.

The result surprised the market by being well below the median projections of analysts consulted by Bloomberg, of 0.22%. The rate of 0.06% was even below the minimum estimate of 0.15%.

The main contribution to the slowdown came from the food and beverage group, which registered a drop of 0.66% in the month.

In the 12-month period, the IPCA-15 slowed to 4.52%, compared to 4.8% recorded until June.

With the new data, the futures interest rate market ended the session falling. At 5:41 pm, the DI (Interbank Deposit) rate for January 2028 was at 13.985%, with a decrease of 0.05 percentage points. The contract for January 2035 closed at 14.635%, down 0.06 percentage points.

In the United States, the ten-year Treasury yield fell 0.96%, to 4.60%.

Gabriel Pestana, senior economist at Genial Investimentos, states that the IPCA-15 results reinforce the signs of a slowdown in inflation, but still requires caution in relation to the behavior of service prices.

According to him, part of the drop observed in food could be reversed at the end of the year, depending on the impacts of El Niño, while services could accelerate again with the entry of fiscal stimuli into the economy in an election year.

The expert adds that the IPCA-15 remains above the 4.5% ceiling of the inflation target pursued by the BC (Central Bank) for the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index).

The release of the data takes place a week before the next Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting of the Central Bank, scheduled for the 4th and 5th of August. At the meeting, the board will decide the new level of the basic interest rate, the Selic, currently at 14.25% per year.

On Wall Street, the main indices closed without a single direction. The Dow Jones rose 1.03%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.21% and the Nasdaq fell 0.22%.

Also this Tuesday, Apple's market capitalization (estimate of the company's market value) briefly surpassed the US$5 trillion mark for the first time, making the company the second in history to reach this level, after Nvidia.

At the peak of the trading session, when shares reached US$342.89, Apple's market value reached US$5.036 trillion.

The conflict in the Middle East and its impacts on oil also remained on the market's radar, which remains attentive to possible advances in negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Last weekend, US President Donald Trump suspended targeted attacks on Iran after being warned by American military leadership that the campaign was not having any effect. Despite this, the Iranian government rejected, on Monday (27), resuming peace negotiations.

At 5:44 pm this Tuesday, a barrel of oil was traded at US$83.76, a drop of 5.21%.

Also this Tuesday, the White House received the President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, and, subsequently, the Prime Minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, in separate meetings with Trump, amid discussions on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.