Genial/Quaest: Lula increases his advantage and would beat Flávio Bolsonaro in both rounds

In a possible 2nd round of the election for Palácio do Planalto, Lula registers 45% of voting intentions, while Flávio reaches 37%. In the last survey, released on June 10, the PT member had an advantage of 6 percentage points (p.p.) over the parliamentarian: 44% to 38%.

Whites, null or not going to vote make up 14%. Voters who say they are undecided are 4%.

The president would also beat the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) by 45% to 36%. Whites, null or not going to vote make up 15%, while those who are undecided are 4%.

In the scenario against Romeu Zema (Novo), Lula registers 45% and the former governor of Minas Gerais, 35%. Whites, null or not going to vote make up 16%. Voters who are undecided are 4%.

When the opposition candidate is activist Renan Santos (Missão), Lula would be re-elected by 45% to 33%. Whites, null or not going to vote make up 18%. Voters who are undecided are 4%.

1st round

In the simulation of the 1st round, Lula fluctuated positively from 39% to 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro fluctuated negatively from 27% to 28% in the sample released this Wednesday, 15th. The former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) appears in third position, with 4%. He is technically tied with activist Renan Santos (Missão), who has 3%, and with former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo), who has 2%.

Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), former minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Joaquim Barbosa (DC), writer Augusto Cury and Samara Martins (UP) have 1% each. Hertz Dias (PSTU), Heró Bezerra (PRTB) and Edmilson Costa (PCB) did not score.

Voters who are undecided are 11%. Blanks, null or none add up to 8%.

Voting decision

Among voters who have already chosen a presidential candidate, 65% say that their vote has been decided and should not change until October. Another 35% say they could still change candidates if something happens between now and the elections.

Quaest interviewed 2,004 interviewees, aged 16 or over, in person, from July 10th to 13th. The margin of error is 2 p.p., plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-07181/2026.

Genial/Quaest: 57% say they know and would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro

Genial/Quaest research shows that 57% of voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro, the highest rate among pre-candidates. Lula appears with 50%, while Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema register 34% and 31%, respectively.