Dollar and Stock Exchange close higher as tensions ease in the Middle East

At the day's high, the North American currency reached R$5.113, while at its low, it fell to R$5.076. Abroad, the DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six strong currencies, rose 0.04%.

The Stock Exchange also ended the session up 0.74%, at 175,334 points. The domestic market was supported mainly by Embraer shares, which rose more than 5% after the company's number of orders increased in the second quarter.

The conflict in the Middle East continued to dictate the mood of the markets this Monday. Over the weekend, there was a pause in American bombings after 13 consecutive nights of offensives against Tehran.

The truce led Brent, the global oil benchmark, to retreat this Monday. At around 5 pm, the barrel was trading at US$88.05, a drop of 9.03%.

The movement put pressure on the shares of Brazilian oil companies, especially Petrobras. The state-owned company’s common and preferred shares fell more than 2%.

According to Vitor Kayo, senior economist at Nomad, the geopolitical relief "also takes away important support that the commodity had been giving to the real".

The behavior comes after the United States government signaled once again that it may seek a diplomatic solution to end the war. Iran, however, denied on Monday that it would negotiate a peace agreement.

This Monday, Donald Trump said that the US was having "good talks" with Iran and that there was a chance of reaching an agreement, but warned that US attacks would resume if the negotiations were unsuccessful.

The drop in oil prices also has repercussions on the futures interest rate market. The DI (Interbank Deposit) rate for January 2028 fell to 14.045%, a decrease of 12 basis points compared to the 14.167% adjustment in the previous session.

DI rates reflect market expectations for the future trajectory of Selic and CDI, a reference for investment remuneration.

In the American stock market, the Stock Exchanges showed timid performances. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones advanced 0.02% and 0.51%, respectively. The Nasdaq closed down 0.18%.

Despite the temporary pause in offensives, the scenario abroad still inspires caution.

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low. The maritime route is responsible for 20% of all oil and natural gas produced in the world.

Last week, US missiles hit targets across Iran, after Donald Trump said he was "considering a massive attack, bigger than ever" against the theocracy.

The offensive was a response to attacks by the Houthis, a Yemeni militant group allied with Iran, on vessels trying to reach Saudi Arabia via the Red Sea. The route became strategic for the flow of oil after the start of the conflict in the Persian Gulf.

With the transport of commodities strangled, investors have feared a global inflation rebound. Consequently, they also fear the maintenance of interest rates in some of the largest economies in the world at a restrictive level, especially that of the United States.

When interest rates there are high, traders tend to opt for American fixed income, considered a practically risk-free investment. With the expectation of the conflict continuing, riskier assets, such as those from emerging markets, tend to devalue.

This Wednesday (29), the Fed (Federal Reserve, central bank of the USA) meets to define the country's new interest rate. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the expectation is that the institution will again maintain interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%. If the projection is confirmed, it will be the fifth consecutive maintenance of the rate in this interval.

"Investors will carefully watch the tone of the central bank's communication, because a tougher stance tends to support US long interest rates and strengthen the dollar, which normally reduces appetite for risky assets in emerging markets," says Otávio Araújo, senior consultant at Zero Markets Brasil.

Investors also keep the release of economic indicators on their radar. In Brazil, the highlight is the IPCA-15, considered a preview of official inflation, which will be released this Tuesday (28).

According to the Focus bulletin released this Monday, analysts began projecting inflation of 5.12% this year, 0.03 percentage points below last week's estimate.

Even with the reduction, the projection remains above the inflation target ceiling, set at 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

In the United States, the highlight will be the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, which will be released on Thursday (30). Economists consulted by Bloomberg project a 0.1% drop in the monthly index and a 3.7% increase in the 12-month period.

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