SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS) - Brazil had a strong inflow of dollars in the first half of this year. According to data from the Central Bank, the balance was positive at US$17.78 billion (R$91 billion) in the period. In nominal terms (without considering inflation), this is the best exchange rate flow since 2018, when there was a net inflow of US$22.52 billion.
Brazil has the highest inflow of dollars in the 1st half of the year since 2018
SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS) - Brazil had a strong inflow of dollars in the first half of this year. According to data from the Central Bank, the balance was positive at US$17.78 billion (R$91 billion) in the period. In...
The movement reverses the trend seen in the previous year, when there was the largest outflow in the BC's historical series, in nominal terms. In the first half of 2025, the flow was negative at US$14.34 billion.
In addition to exports, driven by more expensive oil, the flow of foreign investment also contributes to the improvement in exchange rate movement. With falling interest rates in the United States and uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's government, investors are looking to diversify their portfolio, placing more money in emerging countries, for example.
This year, the dollar falls 6% against the real, currently quoted at R$5.12. The Ibovespa, on the other hand, rises 5.9%, to 172 thousand points.
Economists, however, point to a reversal of trends in the second half of the year. Forecasts are that American interest rates and the Brazilian Selic should not fall as much as expected. Continuing tensions in Iran and the proximity of presidential elections in Brazil also contribute to greater risk aversion.
In June, the scenario was already pointing in this direction. "The financial segment maintained relevant net outflows, corroborating the loss of traction in external financing observed since the intensification of tensions in the Middle East", says Itaú BBA in a report.
The bank revised its exchange rate projections to US$5.30 in 2026 (from US$5.15 previously) and to US$5.50 in 2027 (from US$5.35).
This Wednesday (8), the bank BTG Pactual said it also updated its forecast for the exchange rate at the end of 2026 from R$4.90 to R$5.40.
"The revision derives mainly from a significant change in the global scenario: data on activity and the labor market in the US came in stronger than expected, while inflation remains resilient," the bank's economists wrote. This should lead to tougher action from the Federal Reserve, the American central bank.
For the coming months, BTG expects an additional inflow of dollars on the commercial side, while on the financial side volatility in the currency flow is expected to remain.
Read Also: Registration for 8,238 temporary IBGE vacancies closes this Thursday
Source: Noticias ao Minuto - Ultima Hora
This story was originally published by Noticias ao Minuto - Ultima Hora. Visit the original publication for further details.
Open original publication
