El Niño should be stronger and with an increase in drought and extreme heat in Acre. The first half of 2026 was rainier than the same period last year in Rio Branco. Data from the Municipal Civil Defense show that, between January and June, 1,557.5 millimeters of rain were recorded in the capital, a volume 18% higher than the accumulated 1,321.2 millimeters recorded in the first six months of 2025. According to the Civil Defense, the rains did not occur uniformly throughout the semester. Much of this accumulation was influenced by isolated episodes of intense rain, a scenario considered atypical and which, in practice, does not rule out the forecast of a more severe drought in the coming months. ? Join the g1 AC channel on WhatsApp According to the numbers, the biggest difference was observed in January, when Rio Branco recorded 644.5 millimeters of rain, more than three times the volume recorded in the same month of 2025, which was 190 millimeters. Rainfall in the first six months of the year was above 18% compared to the same period last year Victor Lebre/g1 There was also an increase in March, which went from 259.9 millimeters to 365.6 millimeters, in May, from 73.4 millimeters to 81 millimeters and mainly in June, when the accumulated amount jumped from 29.1 millimeters to 106 millimeters. February and April followed the opposite path. In February this year, 114.4 millimeters were recorded, well below the 411.1 millimeters observed in the same period in 2025. In April, the accumulated figure fell from 357.6 millimeters to 245.9 millimeters. (See detailed graph below) To g1, the coordinator of Rio Branco's Civil Defense, lieutenant colonel Cláudio Falcão, informed that climate neutrality favored fluctuations in the behavior of rainfall, but isolated episodes had a significant weight in the accumulated result for the semester. "This year is very atypical. We are in a period of neutrality, without interference from phenomena, and we already feel a precondition for the arrival of El Niño. But it is not possible to generalize because there are situations outside the curve", he explained. One of the examples cited by the coordinator was the month of June. Although it ended with 106 millimeters of rain, a volume well above the historical average expected for the period, of 39.4 millimeters, practically all of this precipitation was concentrated in a single episode. READ MORE: June had only two days of rain in Rio Branco: 'It could get worse', says Civil Defense With forecasts of drought, agencies discuss actions to face drought in AC: 'Mitigating the effects' River Acre drops more than 6 meters in a month and raises alert in the capital: 'Foreshadowing of drought' "On a single day it rained 103 millimeters. On the other days there was practically no rain. If this event hadn't happened, June would have recorded only around 3 millimeters. So, these episodes end up significantly increasing the overall rainfall, but they do not represent regularity in rainfall”, he highlighted. Historical data also shows that the most critical period has yet to begin. July, August and September traditionally record the lowest amounts of rain in the capital of Acre. For this month, for example, according to the Municipal Civil Defense, the expected historical average is 29.4 millimeters. Dry period and Acre River Even with the rainiest semester, the consequences of the dry period are already beginning to appear. This Wednesday (9), the Acre River reached 2.30 meters in Rio Branco, according to a survey by the Municipal Civil Defense. However, on the same date last year, the spring registered 1.83 meters, a difference of 47 centimeters. According to Falcão, the trend continues to be for the drought to worsen throughout the driest quarter of the year. “The forecast is that we will have a stronger drought than last year,” he said. The expectation is also related to the possibility of El Niño acting in the coming months. At the end of May, environmental agencies, Civil Defense and researchers had already met to align preventive actions in light of climate projections for the second half of the year. Rio Acre reached 1.23 meters in 2024 and reached the lowest level in 53 years Andryo Amaral/Rede Amazônica Acre Among the measures discussed are the excavation of wells and waterholes in the most vulnerable communities, reinforcement of fire brigade teams and planning for water supply in isolated regions. The objective is to reduce the impacts of drought and increased fires, a scenario faced by Acre in 2025, when the state declared an emergency due to severe drought. Furthermore, last year, Rio Branco went almost 40 days without recording rain, a situation that contributed to the accelerated fall of the Acre River and the worsening of the drought. At the time, the last rainfall for that period had been recorded on June 17. What is El Niño and why is it a concern? ???? El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Despite occurring in the Pacific Ocean, it changes rainfall and temperature patterns in several regions of the planet, including Brazil. According to the United States climate agency (NOAA), there is more than an 80% chance of the phenomenon forming in 2026. Experts, however, say that it is not yet possible to know how intense the event will be. Historically, El Niño causes a reduction in rainfall in the North region, an increase in temperatures and a greater risk of drought and fires in the Amazon. Scientists also warn that the effects could be heightened by global warming, favoring more intense heat waves, forest fires and impacts on water supply and air quality. Impacts of El Niño in Brazil. Art/g1 VIDEOS: g1