João Pessoa on a sunny day with open weather Edilane Araújo/TV Cabo Branco The 2026 El Niño should cause an increase in temperatures and intensify dry periods in Paraíba, especially in Sertão and Cariri, in addition to influencing the next rainy season in the state. According to experts, the phenomenon has the potential to be one of the most intense in recent years, which could increase the impacts on reservoirs, air quality and the demand for water and electricity. ? El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by the above-normal warming of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon occurs due to the weakening of the so-called trade winds, which, naturally, are responsible for pushing warm waters towards Asia and Oceania. With weaker winds, warm water remains on the surface of the ocean and makes it difficult for the deep, cold waters to rise. As a consequence, the phenomenon changes rainfall and temperature patterns in different regions of the planet. ? Click here to follow the g1 PB channel on WhatsApp El Niño increases the risk of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes What differentiates the 2026 El Niño from previous events? In an interview with g1, meteorologist Morgana Almeida, from the National Semiarid Institute (Insa), explained that the pattern of warming of Pacific waters indicates that the El Niño of 2026 could be more intense than those recorded in recent years. "On the coast of Peru, very significant warming since the end of January constituted the so-called Coastal El Niño. In the central strip of the ocean, which is the region with the greatest influence on Brazil's climate, warming was consolidated in mid-April", he said.
El Niño 2026: understand how the climate phenomenon should affect Paraíba
João Pessoa on a sunny day with open weather Edilane Araújo/TV Cabo Branco The 2026 El Niño should cause an increase in temperatures and intensify dry periods in Paraíba, especially in Sertão and Cariri, in addition to...
Furthermore, projections from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate a high probability that the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean will be more than 2°C above average. If this is confirmed, the phenomenon will be classified as "Strong" or "Very Strong". Another factor that can intensify the impacts is the climate change scenario caused by global warming. "The heart of the issue is the development of an El Niño in a climate change scenario. When an El Niño of this intensity is added to global warming, the risk of extreme weather events multiplies: more intense heat waves, severe droughts in the North and Northeast and massive storms in the South of Brazil", he added. El Niño should increase the risk of forest fires, says report How could the 2026 El Niño affect Paraíba? In Paraíba, the main expected impact is the increase in temperatures, according to the meteorologist. "In the months of August, September and October 2026, there is practically no rain, as climatologically it is already the beginning of the dry period and higher temperatures in the region. El Niño could enhance these aspects, contributing to the occurrence of consecutive days with higher temperatures and possible episodes of heat waves", he explained. With temperatures above average, other effects can also be felt in the state, such as worsening air quality and reducing reservoir levels. "The effects of this increase generate a cascade effect. Relative air humidity decreases drastically, which affects air quality and, consequently, human and animal health. Furthermore, there is an increase in evaporation, causing reservoirs to lose more water into the atmosphere. This thermal increase creates pressure on important infrastructures, such as an increase in demand for water and electricity", he pointed out. Another possible impact, according to the expert, is on the next rainy season expected for the state, between December 2026 and February 2027. "Subsequently, if the phenomenon persists with strong or very strong intensity, the impact will be felt on the quality of the next rainy season, which also begins in the Sertão. The quarter from December 2026 to February 2027 has a high probability of being under the influence of a strong El Niño", she detailed. Difference between regions of the state Although the phenomenon influences the entire state, the effects tend to be more intense in some regions. According to the meteorologist, Sertão and Cariri should feel the impacts more severely. “In Sertão and Cariri, the phenomenon intensifies high temperatures and low humidity in the second half of the year,” he said. On the Coast, Brejo and Agreste of Paraíba, the main change caused by El Nino will be the reduction in the total volume of accumulated rainfall, according to the specialist. "On the Coast, Brejo and Agreste, the main rainy season occurs during autumn and winter. Under the influence of El Niño, the general trend is for a reduction in the total accumulated volume of rainfall. However, this does not prevent the occurrence of extreme and occasional heavy rain events, such as those recently recorded at the end of April/beginning of May", he concluded. *Under the supervision of Erickson Nogueira 31 cities in Paraíba are in an emergency situation due to the rains Most watched videos from g1 Paraíba
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