Burnham expected to vote in favour of Mahmood’s asylum system changes

The bill returns to the Commons on Monday for its second reading, where Mahmood is also expected to announce plans to make it possible to deport the ringleader of a grooming gang, Shabir Ahmed, a move publicly backed by Burnham.

Other possible changes to the bill – including those being pushed by MPs to soften the changes to ILR – are likely to come at a later parliamentary stage when Burnham is prime minister.

The changes will double the time it takes to qualify for ILR from five to 10 years, which gives migrants the right to permanently live and work in Britain. Mahmood had been keen for the change to apply to the recent rise in migrants who came on new visas issued, often to care workers, by the last Conservative government.

MPs are not expecting a rebellion over Monday’s bill, though there will be some abstentions, because some sceptics in the party are still holding out hopes of tweaking the changes to ILR – to stop the changes applying retrospectively – before the bill reaches its final stage in the Commons.

The Home Office has said it will respond soon to a consultation on the changes. One option under consideration is that those currently in the UK would qualify for ILR after the five-year wait – rather than a decade – but would need to wait an additional period in order to claim any state benefits.

Almost 80 Labour MPs have signed a letter to Burnham urging him to change the policy to stop it applying to migrants already in the country, calling it “an anathema to who we are, what we stand for and how we should do politics”.

Burnham signalled during his Makerfield byelection campaign that he was comfortable with most of the immigration changes being made by Mahmood, who is widely expected to stay on as home secretary. A spokesperson for Burnham said: “Andy believes the public deserve an asylum system that is both compassionate and credible.

“This bill takes important steps towards restoring confidence by tackling illegal crossings while strengthening safe and legal routes for genuine refugees. This is about ensuring the system is fair both to those seeking protection and to the communities that welcome them.”

Mahmood is also expected to set out plans later on Monday on how the government will change the law to deport Ahmed, who was recently released from prison after spending 22 years in jail for multiple child sexual offences including rape.

At present, Ahmed cannot be deported because of a 1971 law applying to Commonwealth citizens who arrived in the UK more than 50 years ago. Mahmood intends to change this to make it possible to deport those convicted of serious criminality – though Pakistan has made it clear it would be unlikely to accept Ahmed’s return.

“We are committed to doing everything to deport this vile criminal and exploring every possible option,” a No 10 spokesperson said.