In the 2nd round, Lula has 47% against 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro, points out BTG/Nexus

According to the survey, Lula registers 47% of voting intentions, while Flávio reaches 44%, the same percentages as in the last survey, on June 29th. White, null or none of the candidates make up 8%. Voters who said they did not know are 1%.

The president would also beat former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo) by 47% to 40%. White, null or none of the candidates make up 11%, while those who don't know make up 2%.

In the scenario against Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Lula also records 47% and the former governor of Goiás, 38%. White, null or none of the candidates make up 13%. Voters who don't know are 2%.

When the opposition candidate is activist Renan Santos (Missão), Lula would be re-elected by 49% to 35%. White, null or none of the candidates total 14%. Voters who don't know are 2%.

Motivation for voting

The survey also investigated what motivates voters' choice in the main second round scenario, between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Among those interviewed who declare their vote for the current president, 75% say they support him because they consider him the best candidate to govern the country, while 19% say they vote for him mainly to prevent the senator's election and 6% do not know or did not respond.

Among Flávio Bolsonaro's voters, 62% say that the parliamentarian is the candidate most prepared to govern, while 32% declare that the main reason for voting is to defeat Lula and 6% don't know or didn't answer.

Nexus interviewed 2,003 respondents, aged 16 and over, by telephone, from July 10th to 12th. The margin of error is 2 p.p., plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code BR-07981/2026.

Read Also: BTG/Nexus: 50% say they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro at all