US bans Chinese humanoid robots and expands technological dispute with Beijing

China leads the market for humanoid robots The market for humanoid and quadruped robots, popularly known as "robot dogs", is considered one of the main global areas of technological growth. American and Chinese companies compete for leadership in the development of this equipment. China, however, occupies a dominant position. Barclays analysts estimate that Chinese manufacturers account for around 85% of the global humanoid robot market. Morgan Stanley experts project that the Chinese market for the sector could reach 15 billion dollars (R$76.9 billion) by 2030. "Chinese manufacturers have increased production and reduced costs faster than most foreign competitors," said Kangyuxiao Li, an analyst at Morningstar, to the AP agency. In the United States, companies like Figure AI already use humanoid robots in production lines. Tesla intends to start manufacturing its Optimus robot this year. Despite this, American exports are still limited. According to consultancy Omdia, Chinese companies Unitree and AGIBOT sold a total of 10,000 humanoid robots abroad in 2025, while US exports remain in the hundreds of units. FCC President Brendan Carr stated that the measure also seeks to protect supply chains considered strategic for the country. For Li, however, the restrictions should not significantly slow down China's progress in the segment. According to the analyst, the size of the Chinese industrial base and opportunities in other export markets tend to offset the effects of the American decision. Possible diplomatic impacts In addition to the consequences for the industry, the ban could have diplomatic repercussions before the scheduled meeting between the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the President of China, Xi Jinping, in September. Washington has already banned the entry of Chinese-made drones and is considering imposing restrictions on Chinese open-source artificial intelligence models, citing concerns about espionage, surveillance and data collection. Recently, the Pentagon included Unitree and other large Chinese technology companies on a list of companies that, according to the American government, have links with the Chinese Armed Forces. Beijing rejected the accusation. Quadruped robots will also be affected by the new restrictions announced by the USA. Tony Gutierrez/AP Photo/picture alliance "It's a constant sequence of potential flashpoints on the eve of the Trump-Xi summit," said Samm Sacks, senior researcher at the New America think tank, specializing in China's technology policies. Currently, most humanoid robots are used in controlled industrial environments, such as automobile factories and storage centers. Stationary industrial robots will remain exempt from the ban. Depending on the interpretation of the standard, however, the definition adopted by the FCC may also cover even more advanced robotic vacuum cleaners. Restrictions also affect power inverters The FCC also included power inverters manufactured abroad on the list of equipment subject to restrictions. These devices convert the direct current generated by solar panels into alternating current compatible with the electrical grid. The agency argues that equipment connected to the internet can be remotely deactivated or used to collect data, posing security risks similar to those attributed to robots. As is the case in the advanced robotics sector, the measure should mainly affect Chinese manufacturers, who currently dominate the global market for inverters for solar energy systems.