Palácio do Planalto once again experienced busy days. Measures to stimulate the economy have been frequently announced since the beginning of the year. Together, these actions already total R$283.2 billion. The value is quickly approaching the package of kindness four years ago, when Jair Bolsonaro launched an offensive of R$325 billion, in values ??adjusted for inflation. The Lula government's initiatives to stimulate the economy occur on several fronts. They range from income tax relief to the offer of loans guaranteed by state funds. Measures with an economic impact in 2026 were compiled by the Swiss bank UBS. Although legislation restricts this type of initiative, election years historically tend to see a boost in the economy generated by government actions. When comparing the measures adopted in the two elections, it is possible to see very different strategies between Lula and Bolsonaro. In 2022, under the state of emergency decreed by Congress, Bolsonaro advanced with the so-called “PEC Kamikaze”, which included tax cuts and reinforcement of social programs, such as the former Auxílio Brasil, in addition to the unprecedented Auxílio Caminhoneiro and Auxílio Taxista. At the time, the result was a shock to the Treasury's cash flow: R$167.7 billion in exemptions and reliefs (51.6%), in addition to R$123 billion in additional income for the population through the reinforcement of social programs (37.9%). The values ??were corrected by the IPCA. In 2026, the formula is very different. Limited by the new fiscal framework, the government charted an alternative path: it tries to create a sense of economic well-being by touching as little as possible in its own cash flow. The solution was to resort to the financial system and state guarantee funds. Of the resources mobilized by the current administration, R$193.5 billion (69%) depend on a simple but decisive gesture by the citizen or businessman: signing a debt contract. Signing this contract to buy a car or a new refrigerator, however, may be coming up against reality. With debt on the rise and default rates at a record level, many Brazilians — who would even like to take out credit — are unable to do so because their name is dirty. This difference between expectation and reality is symbolized by the slow march of the Move Brasil program. The initiative, which provides R$30 billion in credit for the purchase of cars by app drivers and taxi drivers, enters its second month with only R$2 billion released. The reason? Most interested parties have a bad name or are unable to comply with the banks' requirements. This perhaps explains the current government's obsession with initiatives to renegotiate debts, such as Desenrola, which has grown and now reaches even those who are in default. 'Incessant search' for fiscal balance The Ministry of Finance denies that there is a concentration of economic measures with electoral objectives and states that the team seeks to balance public accounts. According to the ministry, there is an “incessant search for fiscal balance, especially with the goal of achieving primary surpluses in the very short term”. In a note to GloboNews, the Ministry of Finance states that, since the beginning of the government, “around 70 public policies” in the economic area have been approved by the National Congress. “In other words, this government has been working since its inception to resolve economic, structural and cyclical issues”, the note states. The Treasury cites as an example the new “Novo Desenrola Brasil”, considered a long-term policy. “Family debt is a persistent problem since the pandemic, which the government is making efforts to mitigate”, he mentions. Regarding the new Income Tax, which provides exemption for those earning up to R$5,000, the Ministry states that the initiative “addresses the low progressivity of the IRPF, which constituted an economic problem widely diagnosed in Brazil”. “The reform sought to address this distortion with the purpose of expanding tax justice and contributing to the reduction of socioeconomic inequality in one of the most unequal countries in the world”, says the text. Regarding the interest charged on loans and levied on public debt, the Ministry states that they reflect a combination of factors. “Such as fiscal, inflationary and exchange rate risk premiums, the difference between domestic and international interest rates, the distance between inflation and the target and the basic interest policy of the monetary authority for the convergence of effective inflation to the target”, cites the text. "In particular, since September 2023, the average American interest rate, the main global interest rate reference, very influential on Brazilian interest rates, has been at 20-year highs. In other words, in addition to the risks, for example, fiscal and exchange rate, the global interest rate situation has contributed to the resistance to the fall of the interest curve in Brazil, which increases the cost of rolling over the public debt", argues the Treasury. The Ministry also denies that there is no effort to balance public accounts. "Fiscal policy has sought to contribute to the reduction of interest rates and, consequently, the payment of nominal interest, through the incessant search for fiscal balance, especially with the goal of achieving primary surpluses in the very short term. In this way, the pricing of fiscal risk is reduced, exchange rate coupons are reduced and helps to stabilize public debt more quickly", says the note.
Lula's kindness exceeds R$280 billion and comes close to Bolsonaro's package
Palácio do Planalto once again experienced busy days. Measures to stimulate the economy have been frequently announced since the beginning of the year. Together, these actions already total R$283.2 billion. The value is...
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