On the eve of the decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) at the August meeting, the median of the Focus report's projections for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 fell from 14% to 13.75%, after five weeks of stability.
Selic at the end of 2026 falls from 14% to 13.75%, calculates Focus
On the eve of the decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) at the August meeting, the median of the Focus report's projections for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 fell from 14% to 13.75%, after five weeks of...
Considering only the 100 estimates updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the median for the Selic at the end of this year also fell from 14% to 13.75%.
The intermediate projection for the rate at the end of 2027, on the other hand, remained at 12% for the seventh consecutive week. Among the 97 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median rose from 12% to 12.25%.
So far, the Copom has promoted three cuts of 0.25 percentage points in interest rates in 2026, taking the Selic to 14.25% per year. In the statement from the last meeting, held in June, the collegiate once again highlighted the uncertainty of the scenario.
According to the document, given the dynamics of risks associated with price developments, the total magnitude of the current Selic calibration cycle will be defined “in light of new information, aiming to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target”.
On the 24th, the president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, stated that the Copom works with different “flight plans” to conduct monetary policy and evaluates which trajectory has the greatest capacity to bring inflation closer to the 3% target, with the lowest cost in terms of volatility.
“We work with trajectories that include scenarios with combinations of different moments of pause and resumption in the cycle”, he declared during his participation in the Expert XP event, in São Paulo.
The median projections for the Selic at the end of 2028 remained at 10.50% for the fifth week in a row. For 2029, the estimate remained at 10% for the 13th consecutive week.
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Source: Noticias ao Minuto
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