For almost 20 years, the Soy Moratorium was one of the most successful initiatives to mobilize the private sector, civil society and government to contain the spread of oilseed planting over native vegetation in the Amazon. However, the collapse of the agreement in recent months brings back the specter of deforestation linked to the agricultural commodity.
End of the Soy Moratorium could increase deforestation in the Amazon by 17%
For almost 20 years, the Soy Moratorium was one of the most successful initiatives to mobilize the private sector, civil society and government to contain the spread of oilseed planting over native vegetation in the...
A study published in the journal Science reveals that the end of the Soy Moratorium could increase deforestation in the Amazon over the next decade. According to the research, around 1.4 million hectares – almost 10 cities in São Paulo – could be deforested, equivalent to 17% of the deforestation in the last ten years. The impact of this in terms of emissions is significant: around 745 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e), comparable to Canada's annual emissions.
The analysis was carried out by researchers from the Universities of Wisconsin, DePaul and Illinois (USA), as well as Greenpeace Brazil and WWF-Brazil. In addition to reinforcing the importance of the Moratorium for containing Amazonian deforestation over the last 20 years, the study also highlights the risk of setbacks in a scenario where the initiative is discontinued.
According to the research, 9.1 million hectares of vegetation on private land, the equivalent of Portugal, could be legally deforested for cultivation without the Soy Moratorium. Another 28.7 million hectares of undesignated public forests, an area comparable to Italy, will also be vulnerable.
“The effect of the end of the Moratorium will not be mainly on properties that already produce soy, it will be on others, because it has already opened the prospect for expansion in areas that never had soy before”, explains Lisa Rausch, from the University of Wisconsin, co-author of the study, to Folha. Among the areas at risk is the area around BR-319, which connects Manaus (AM) to Porto Velho (RO), and whose paving could facilitate environmental destruction in the region.
Data from the study indicate that, in its first ten years of validity, the Moratorium allowed the reduction of deforestation by 35% in areas at risk for soy expansion. Avoided forest loss is estimated at 1.8 million hectares. “The Soy Moratorium showed that it is possible to expand agricultural production while maintaining conservation criteria”, notes Tiago Reis, from WWF-Brazil, another co-author of the research, to Agência Brasil.
Despite the positive results for both the Amazon Forest and Brazilian grain production, the Soy Moratorium has been the target of strong opposition from agribusiness in recent years, with staunch support from some politicians. Several states in the Legal Amazon, such as Mato Grosso, Rondônia, Tocantins and Maranhão, approved laws that remove benefits from companies that joined the initiative. Even with the constitutionality of these laws in question in the Federal Supreme Court (STF), it was enough to make the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) and companies abandon the agreement in early 2026.
“The validation of state laws by the STF will have an impact on the extent to which companies will be encouraged to make more ambitious commitments in relation to the Forest Code, which may also affect other production chains”, highlights Cristiane Mazzetti, forest coordinator at Greenpeace Brazil and also co-author of the study, to Globo Rural.
Brasil de Fato, Capital Reset, Canal Rural and Poder360, among others, also highlighted the study.
Source: ClimaInfo
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