The probability of El Niño already in effect becoming “super” has increased. A new analysis from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that there is now an 81% chance of the phenomenon becoming very strong between October and December. About a month ago, the probability was 63%.
Chance of a “Super El Niño” at the end of the year rises to 81%, says NOAA
The probability of El Niño already in effect becoming “super” has increased. A new analysis from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates...
It doesn't stop there. This year's El Niño – which has a 97% chance of lasting until March 2027 – is expected to be one of the strongest in 75 years, highlights Bloomberg. "Only seven El Niño events in the last 75 years have been classified as very strong. This event is expected to be among the strongest in the historical record that we have monitored," Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, told USA Today.
In recent days, a change in one of the most used graphs to monitor the evolution of El Niño caught the attention of meteorologists, according to O Globo. NOAA increased the scale of the graph that brings together the projections of the CFSv2 climate model for sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region, in the Equatorial Pacific, from 4°C to 5°C. The reason: some of the simulations began to exceed the maximum limit foreseen in the previous scale.
The change does not mean that the agency has officially predicted an El Niño with anomalies greater than 4°C. CFSv2 is just one of the models used by NOAA to monitor the phenomenon and produce climate projections. However, the need to expand the scale of the graph shows how much the model's projections have intensified in recent months.
A stronger El Niño does not necessarily translate into more serious climate consequences, highlights Folha. However, this classification increases the chances of the phenomenon's most characteristic impacts occurring, with storms, droughts or more intense heat waves, depending on the region of the planet. Added to climate change, the risk intensifies.
In Brazil, El Niño usually causes drought in the North, Northeast, Center-West and part of the Southeast, and more rain in the South. The last record of the phenomenon, between 2023 and 2024, caused two historic droughts in the Amazon and consecutive storms in May 2024 that left almost all of Rio Grande do Sul under water. With the new forecast, the chances of an exceptionally hot summer in much of the country are still growing.
The arrival of El Niño raised alarm in the federal government. In 2024, criminals took advantage of the drought and heat to set fire to the Amazon, the Cerrado and the Pantanal, causing the country to break a record for forest fires. Therefore, this year's event will test Brazil's preparedness for the flames, highlights Folha. Even more so if “Super El Niño” is confirmed.
Reuters, Fortune, Poder 360 and Band also reported NOAA's new projection.
Source: ClimaInfo
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