Brazil could cut up to 40 GW of renewable energy per year by 2030 due to oversupply

In the presentation of the Energy Operation Plan from 2026 to 2030, the ONS assessed that generation cuts classified as “energy” will be more intense and frequent, as Brazil continues to have more electricity supply than consumption, report Canal Solar, Megawhat and CNN Brasil. This scenario will require generation reductions to balance the electrical system and guarantee energy supply to consumers.

According to the operator, the cuts tend to be concentrated between 7am and 3pm, the period of greatest availability of solar and wind generation. Sundays should concentrate the highest levels of cuts, due to lower electricity consumption. Furthermore, the cuts will continue to be more intense in the months with the greatest wind harvest (August, September and October).

Despite the possibility of high cuts, the ONS estimates a reduction in the frequency of events over the analyzed horizon. In 2027, cuts should occur in around 19% of hours per year, a percentage that tends to fall to 14% of hours in 2030.

Electrical reliability restrictions, related to the safe operation of the transmission system, are expected to lose importance over the analyzed horizon, falling from 7% of hours in 2027 to 4% in 2030.

It's worth remembering that part of the problem would be solved with the installation of battery energy storage systems (BESS). However, the auction to contract these systems, promised around two years ago, will only be held in December. And the first equipment will only be delivered in 2028.

While the country wastes renewable energy, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) continues to insist on contracting fossil fuel thermoelectric plants. Power plants that produce dirty, more expensive electricity.

Terra, Folha and Investing.com also shared the forecast of cutting renewable energy by 2030.