Trump says the US will control the Strait of Hormuz and charge 20% on vessel cargo The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has created a "new normal" for the oil market. Military threats, geopolitical decisions and disputes over control of the passage began to affect prices, transport and global supply chains — even without a complete blockade of the route. The region has also become an important pressure tool for Iran in the conflict with the United States and a challenge for Donald Trump, who is facing the economic effects of the escalation on the eve of the mid-term elections in November. (read more below) ? In recent days, offensives by both countries have called into question the ceasefire announced in June and reignited concerns about the safety of navigation in the region, putting renewed pressure on oil prices. This Monday (13), the barrel of Brent, an international oil reference, rose more than 9%, to US$ 83.04 per barrel, after Trump announced that the USA intends to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge 20% on cargo that passes through the route. ? The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is one of the main energy transport routes in the world. In total, around 20% of the oil consumed globally passes through there. Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, seen from Musandam, Oman REUTERS / Stringer New dynamics in the market At the beginning of the war, the fear was that an interruption in supply would cause an oil price spike. Now, the new normal is ups and downs, with more sudden fluctuations in prices even without an effective interruption in supply. "The main characteristic of this new scenario is volatility and uncertainty", summarizes Jackson Campos, specialist in foreign trade. "It's not about the lack of oil itself, because that hasn't happened. But the possibility of interruption causes shipowners, insurers and refineries to react preventively, raising costs in a 'bullwhip effect' even before an actual blockade," he adds. According to Campos, the world began to monitor the route with greater attention. As a result, any political declaration or threat involving the US and Iran can provoke an immediate reaction in prices, incorporating geopolitical risk into the daily cost of freight and maritime insurance. Evolution of oil prices. Art/g1 Economist Adriano Pires, founding partner and director of the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE), states that the Strait of Hormuz has become the main reference for the formation of oil prices in the short and medium term. He adds that recent conflicts, including the war between Russia and Ukraine, have shown an increasingly close relationship between energy security, food security and inflation. "The new normal goes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. There are two areas of the world that are going through complicated processes that lead to this scenario," he says. Russia and the Middle East are strategic regions for the global supply of energy and fertilizers — with a relevant role in the production of oil, natural gas and agricultural inputs. "The current fight is who will rule the Strait of Hormuz. Until this is resolved — which I believe will take time — we will experience more tense and less tense periods", he adds. Infographic - Strait of Hormuz Arte/g1 Pedra in Trump's shoe The volatility of oil represents an additional challenge for Donald Trump, who has defended lower energy prices as a way of stimulating the American economy and containing inflation. In the US, a rise in the price of a barrel tends to reach fuels quickly, as the government does not control gasoline prices — unlike what happens in Brazil, where the Petrobras has a relevant role in price formation. For Gunter Rudzit, professor of International Relations at ESPM, Iran has identified precisely this point of US vulnerability: the impact of energy on the economy and the consumer. He assesses that, by using the Strait of Hormuz as an instrument of pressure, Tehran directly affects a sensitive issue for Trump. This affects the voter, even reaching President Trump's 'MAGA' base", he says. Gasoline prices have already risen again in the US in light of the new escalation of tensions in the region. According to the automobile association AAA, the national average for fuel reached US$3.84 per gallon on July 9, an increase of 5 cents in one day — although still below the peak of US$4.56 registered in May. The movement increases the White House's concern with the proximity of the midterm elections (midterms), in November. In addition to governors, Americans will choose the 435 seats in the House and 35 in the Senate. Today, Republicans control both Houses of Congress. What to expect ahead Adriano Pires, from CBIE, assesses that oil prices above US$90 per barrel would be a political problem for Trump on the eve of the elections. There will not be oil above US$ 90. We know that there will be an American election, and very expensive oil increases the price of gasoline and derivatives in the USA", he states. At the height of the oil crisis caused by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, between March and April, the commodity reached US$ 120 per barrel. From the market's point of view, foreign trade specialist Jackson Campos states that the forecast is for adaptation to this new reality. "The tendency is for the market to adapt to this new reality, diversify suppliers and seek more flexible contracts to even try to escape from Hormuz until the situation stabilizes", he concludes.