With an older electorate, Brazil will have 158.7 million eligible to vote in 2026, says TSE

While the general electorate increased by just 1.5%, the age group that includes the elderly increased from 21% to 23.6% of the total. On the contrary, the number of people aged 21 to 34 who will be able to participate in the election fell from 43.8 million to 41 million, which represents 25.8% of the total.

In real terms, there will be 2.3 million more voters since the last general election, when around 156 million were able to choose the president of the Republic, governors, senators, federal and state deputies (or district deputies, in the case of Brasília).

The TSE statement says that "the movement points to an older age composition of the electorate in the recent period." The 2022 IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) Demographic Census had already shown that Brazil's aging indicators accelerated to record levels.

According to the survey, people aged 65 or over represent 10.9% of the total population in the country - of the 203.1 million Brazilians, 22.2 million are in this age group.

This year's elections should be marked by a direct clash between President Lula (PT), who is seeking his unprecedented fourth term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), who is counting on the political assets of his father under house arrest, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), to be elected to office for the first time.

The first round of elections will be held on October 4. If necessary, as surveys indicate, the second round for the Presidency and state governments is scheduled for October 25th. Senators, federal and state deputies are elected in a single vote.

The registration of voters aged 16 and 17, who are not obliged to participate in elections but can influence the outcome of the election, declined this year. There will be 1.6 million in October, a drop of 22.8% compared to the 2.1 million recorded in 2022.

As Folha de S.Paulo showed in the last presidential election, there was an explosion of people eligible to vote in this age group at the time, following online campaigns led by artists and digital influencers.

According to the Federal Constitution, voting is mandatory in Brazil only for people over 18 years of age. For teenagers aged 16 and 17, illiterate people and seniors over 70, going to the polls is optional.

In relation to the country's regions, TSE data shows that the North had the biggest proportional increase in the number of voters since the last general election, with an increase of 4.37%. It went from 12.6 million eligible to vote to 13.1 million - more than half a million.

The Central-West also registered growth above the national average (3.97%) and reached around 12 million voters. Lula's electoral stronghold and the second region with the most voters, the Northeast has 43.5 million (an increase of 2.69%), while in the South the electorate increased to 22.9 million (an increase of 1.34%).

The most populous region in the country, the Southeast has 66.3 million voters eligible to vote, registering a slight drop of 0.56%. São Paulo has 21.48% of the national electorate (34.1 million), while Minas Gerais (16.4 million) remains the second largest electoral college. The two are key states in the presidential dispute, as candidacies for local government have the ability to attract votes from candidates.

Lula's platform in Minas Gerais, for example, was formalized this Monday after months of coordination. Federal deputy Patrus Ananias (PT) was announced as the party's candidate, after "plan A", with the former president of the Senate Rodrigo Pacheco (PSB), and "plan B", with the former mayor of Contagem and pre-candidate for the Senate, Marília Campos (PT), failed due to their refusal.

Flávio's situation in the state is still undefined. As Folha de S.Paulo showed, the PL has advanced in negotiations and is just awaiting the decision of Senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans) on running for government to announce an alliance in Minas.

Of the total of around 158 million, the majority (52.84%) are women, a portion that has remained practically stable. In absolute terms, they are 83.9 million and should be one of the decisive electorates in these elections. The main presidential candidates are already preparing strategies to gain the group's support.

The electorate profile also shows that 16.9 million declare themselves as brown, 11.7 million are white, 3.6 million say they are black, 229,540 identify as yellow and 287,157 as indigenous. However, there is still no information on the race of 80% of voters.

The deadline to obtain the first voter registration card, transfer the electoral domicile and resolve pending issues with the Electoral Court ended on May 6th. Since then, the electoral court, under the command of minister Kassio Nunes Marques, organized the data.

The campaign will begin in less than a month, on August 16th. Parties will have until the day before the date, on the 15th, to register their candidacies with the Electoral Court. Party conventions, events where the names that will represent the parties in the election are formalized, begin this Monday and run until August 5th.

Datafolha research published at the end of June shows that Lula and Flávio have, respectively, 47% and 43% of voting intentions in a possible second round, while whites and nulls total 8%. In a scenario with other candidates, the PT member maintains the advantage and scores 41% compared to 31% for the Bolsonarist.

2,004 people aged 16 or over were interviewed in person in 139 municipalities from June 17th to 18th. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The TSE registration number is BR-09956/2026.

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