US secrets believe Russia is preparing limited action against NATO

Vladimir Putin may attempt to “test NATO's resolve” with a limited attack on an allied country in the coming years, according to the same document.

According to the American publication, the attack could take different forms, such as a small-scale land military incursion or a cyber attack.

The report points out that the period in which Russia could act is from this autumn until 2029. One of the hypotheses is that Putin could occupy a city or region in Poland or in one of the three Baltic countries — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania —, all NATO members that have firmly supported Ukraine.

In this context, it is worth remembering that Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus?da had already mentioned the possibility of limited kinetic operations against critical infrastructure, especially energy and transport facilities, but without indicating regions or dates for possible attacks.

“We received this type of signal from our intelligence services,” Naus?da said in an interview with the Baltic news agency BNS, cited by Spain’s Europa Press (EP), in July. The Lithuanian leader said attacks could be limited and targeted against critical infrastructure. “That’s simply impossible to determine,” he said.

Several NATO members believe that Putin is already carrying out different attacks to test and fragment the alliance. It is worth remembering that Romanian fighter jets shot down three drones that entered the country's airspace for three consecutive days.

Additionally, there has been a 250% increase in alert takeoffs to intercept and identify aircraft near NATO's eastern flank in July 2026 compared to July 2025, as Russia continues to test the West's defenses.

More than four years after the start of Russia's large-scale offensive against Ukraine, diplomacy remains stagnant as both countries intensify long-range attacks, causing a growing number of civilian casualties.