Under heat wave, Western Europe experiences hottest June in history, says Copernicus

The month of May had also been the second hottest on record.

According to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the continent, in addition to the beginning of the third heatwave of the season, is also experiencing widespread drought. Associated with high temperatures, the condition favors the occurrence of forest fires in Portugal, Spain and France.

There is an overlap of phenomena. The June heat wave exacerbated the drought that had already been fueled by the May heat wave. The problem hampers navigation on several important rivers in Europe, as well as compromising part of agricultural production.

"June 2026 highlighted the depth of climate change. Western Europe recorded the hottest June on record, and the oceans continued to experience record temperatures. Together, these marks reflect a climate system that continues to accumulate heat," says Samantha Burgess, ECMWF coordinator.

"The result is increasingly intense heat waves, a persistently warm ocean, and increasing risks to people, ecosystems, and infrastructure."

While cities like Lisbon, Madrid and Paris are already feeling the effects of the third heat wave of the year, with warnings and temperatures well above 30°C, the accounting of the damage from the second heat wave continues.

Analysis by academics shows that excess deaths in France caused by high temperatures are expected to reach 2,700, higher than the 2,025 deaths officially declared so far.

In Germany, an initial projection by the Federal Statistics Office points to an even worse picture, 5,655 more deaths than the average seen in the same period over the last four years. The country also recorded a national temperature record, 41.7°C.

In Berlin, thermometers reached 39.9°C, an unprecedented level in the German capital.

According to a study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), led by scientists from Imperial College, London, the June heat wave was the most severe in the continent's history. The high temperatures recorded in several parts of Europe would have been impossible to occur 50 years ago, the research showed.

Climate change, caused mainly by the burning of oil, coal and gas, is the main driver of heat waves. Europe, in turn, is the continent that warms most quickly, also due to the anomalous behavior of the oceans.

In June, the global temperature mark for the surface of seas and oceans was also a record, surpassing that of June 2024 by 0.01°C. According to Copernicus, this is already a reflection of the development of a strong El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific.

In Western Europe, the portion of the continent most affected by heat waves, June reached 20.74°C, 3.05°C above the reference period (1991-2020). It broke the previous record for the month, set last year.

In global terms, June this year was the second hottest in history, at 16.54°, behind only June 2024. In historical comparison, the month was 1.39°C above the estimated average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

Scientists project that the planet will surpass 1.5°C of global warming, a limit that the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement have agreed to respect, within this decade.

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