Palmeiras has a 56% chance of becoming Brazilian champion, and Flamengo, 30%

And, based on projections from the Mathematics Department at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), the duo should continue calling the shots in 2026.

According to calculations, the Alviverde and the Red-Negro are, by far, the two big favorites to win the Brazilian champion's cup this year.

Abel Ferreira's team leads the statistics, with a 56% probability of winning the title for the 13th time in its history, further widening the gap to Santos and Flamengo, with 8 each.

After 18 rounds, Palmeiras leads the Brasileirão with 41 points, with 12 wins, 5 draws and just one defeat.

With the return of players who played in the World Cup - with the exception of Argentine striker Flaco López -, Palmeiras returns to the field this Wednesday (22), against Coritiba, in a match at Couto Pereira, in Curitiba, at 7:30 pm (Brasília time).

Flamengo, which should also have the return of most of the players who competed in the World Cup, appears with a 28.9% probability of winning the Brasileirão.

Leonardo Jardim's team has 17 matches - the game against Mirassol in the 4th round was postponed due to the red-black team's participation in the Recopa Sul-Americana -, with 34 points added. There are 10 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats so far.

Flamengo also returns to the field this Wednesday, against Chapecoense, at Arena Condá, in Chapecó, starting at 9:30 pm.

"Regarding the title, there are only two candidates. The rest are running on the outside and would be zebras", said Gilcione Nonato da Costa, professor in the Department of Mathematics at UFMG.

He explained that, to arrive at the estimates, mathematicians draw the profile of each of the teams, based on the percentage of wins, draws and losses, and also taking into account the home and away games.

These profiles are then cross-referenced through millions of independent simulations, considering the matches that are yet to be played.

"At the end of these millions of simulations, we count the number of times each team was the champion, which, divided by the number of simulations, results in the probability of that team being the champion," said the professor.

The same model was adopted by UFMG mathematicians to project the results of the World Cup, with projections that ended up being quite accurate: the four finalists – Spain, Argentina, France and England – appeared as the teams most likely to win the world champion cup, with percentages that varied between 3.8% and 4.6%.

Among the 18 remaining teams in the Brasileirão, only 5 appear with a 1% or more chance of winning the cup – Fluminense and Athletico-PR, both with 3.3%, Red Bull Bragantino, with 2.6%, and Coritiba and Bahia, with 1%.

Of the other teams from São Paulo, Corinthians has a 0.6% probability of lifting the cup again, while São Paulo has 0.41%. Next comes Mirassol, with 0.034%, and Santos, with 0.024%.

CHAPECOENSE WITH SERIOUS RISK OF FALL

At the opposite extreme, the UFMG professor highlights that Chapecoense is already virtually relegated, even with around half of the Brasileirão remaining until the final round.

According to mathematicians from Minas Gerais, the Santa Catarina team, which managed to return to the elite after finishing the 2025 Series B in third place, appears with a 96.9% probability of being relegated this year.

The team is at the bottom of the Brazilian Championship, with just 9 points, the result of 11 defeats, 6 draws and just one victory.

Remo, who also gained access to Série A last year, returning to the first division after 32 years, is the second team most likely to be relegated, with 48%.

The team from Pará is second to bottom, with 18 points, after 8 defeats, 6 draws and 4 defeats.

Vasco, relegated four times since 2008, is the third most likely to fall again, at 47.5%.

Cruz-Maltino is 17th in the league table, with 20 points, after 9 defeats, 5 draws and 5 wins.

The fourth team most likely to be relegated is Mirassol, with 42.5%. The team from the interior of São Paulo has not been able to repeat the surprising performance in its debut in the elite last year, and only occupies 18th place, with 19 points. There are 9 defeats, 4 draws and 5 wins so far.

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