Lula leads among the elderly, and Flávio wants to use vice who reported the INSS CPI to grow in the group

This year, people aged 60 or over make up 23.5% of those eligible to vote. There are 37.5 million voters, of the 158.7 million eligible to vote, according to the Electoral Court.

The segment gains importance due to the likely scenario of a close election. Both Lula's and Flávio Bolsonaro's groups believe that the dispute will be decided by a few percentage points.

In the latest Datafolha survey, released on the 24th, Lula had 48% in the second round simulation in the general electorate, a narrow advantage compared to Flávio's 43%. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus.

Among older people, Lula has a wider advantage. In a possible second round, the PT member reaches 55% among those over 60 years old, while Flávio scores 37% (the margin of error in this group is five percentage points). The same goes for retirees, where the score is 60% to 35% (with a six-point margin of error).

The way to approach elderly voters has been discussed by Lula's allies in recent weeks. Those around the president believe that this group has memories of Lula's first governments and, 20 years ago, voted for the PT member. Therefore, it would be a group open to listening to him.

PT's assistants intend to trigger the affective memory of these voters by rescuing the 1989 campaign, with the symbolic "Lula Lá" jingle. They also want to evoke the memory of those who lived through censorship and the military dictatorship to mobilize these voters in favor of Lula.

The president's team, however, makes a reservation: older voters may have mobility difficulties or be disconnected from the political scene. Therefore, it would be necessary to offer strong motivations for people aged 60 and over to leave home and actually vote on election day.

On Sunday (2), during the PT national convention, the president explained his intention to seek out this stratum of society.

"I want to pay a debt to the elderly in this country," said the head of government. "It's important that we know that the child the mother gave birth to does not always take care of her, when she is old, in the same way that she took care of him when he peed and pooped in his diapers", declared Lula.

"We need to create a program for the elderly. Not for them to be locked up. We want them to have a place where they can swim, dance, read, watch movies, walk. They can do whatever they want. Even date, if they find a partner", said the PT member.

In Flávio's campaign, the strategy is to use his vice-president, federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL), as a nod to the elderly and, above all, to retirees. Gaspar was the rapporteur of the joint CPI (Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry) of the INSS (National Social Security Institute).

As Folha de S. Paulo showed, the choice of Gaspar for the ticket was actually more related to his performance against businessman Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, in the CPI. Flávio's aides want to bring to the center of the debate issues linked to Lula's son, the target of investigations by the STF (Supreme Federal Court) on suspicion of influence peddling.

In parallel, these assistants state that Gaspar's work at the CPI will also be used to associate him with the defense of the elderly and retired people. One of the members of the communications team says that the deputy will have all the space he wants on the campaign's networks and advertisements to publicize his role in combating INSS fraud.

The CPI investigated a national scheme of unauthorized associative discounts on retirement and pensions. The investigation began at the CGU (Comptroller General of the Union), which indicated a sum of R$6.3 billion in discounted values, between 2019 and 2024.

Flávio's campaign intends to present Gaspar as a defender of the elderly and someone who stopped the robbery of retirees, according to the senator's allies. The presidential candidate himself, when announcing his vice this Wednesday (5), said that he "faced and defended our retirees in the INSS CPI".

"Perhaps the most heinous thing that could have happened in recent years, in recent decades, in our country was a corrupt government that didn't respect retirees, didn't even save pensions. The ladies, the gentlemen count the reais at the end of the month", Flávio further stated.

Initially, the PL candidate was looking for a female vice president to improve his image in this segment, in which his rejection exceeds that of Lula. In the female electorate, the Bolsonarist scores 40% compared to 50% for the PT member in a possible second round, according to the latest Datafolha survey.

Flávio's allies admit that the choice of Gaspar frustrated this gesture for women, but they claim that it can help compensate for the vote in this other group in which the senator also needs to grow - the elderly and retired.

Gaspar's performance at the CPI, however, was controversial. As rapporteur, he linked the fraud to the Lula government, while practically ignoring the leadership of the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) administration. Government officials accused him of sparing the Bolsonaro administration, when the scandal had started, and persecuting people linked to PTism, but Gaspar said he was carrying out technical work.

Gaspar's final report called for the indictment of 216 people, including Lulinha. The opinion was rejected by the government base by 19 votes to 12, and the CPI ended without a final document.