Flávio's campaign bets on OAB to regain visits to Bolsonaro, but admits pessimism with Moraes

In a letter sent to Moraes, the entity asked that “the possibility of personal and reserved communication between the lawyer and his constituent for strictly professional purposes be ensured”, in accordance with the conditions that the minister deems necessary.

Some of Flávio's allies admit that it will be difficult to convince Moraes or the other members of the First Panel of the STF to overturn the measure, as they believe that these ministers are political opponents of Bolsonarism. Even so, the senator's defense asked for the OAB's intervention as a way of testing the Court's willingness to review the decision.

Supreme Court justices disagree on the case. One of them told Folha that he expected an intermediate solution to the request and criticized the ban determined by Moraes. Another judge classified the OAB's request as “foolish” and expressed support for the rapporteur.

The most optimistic allies of the PL pre-candidate believe that the restriction on contact between Flávio and Bolsonaro could last less than the established 90 days and minimize the possible electoral effects.

This group does not rule out that Moraes accepts the OAB's request and retreats. In the assessment of pre-campaign members, the decision ended up favoring Flávio by reinforcing the discourse of persecution, bringing together different sectors of the right and expanding the senator's exposure. Internal criticism from some ministers could also influence a possible change.

For now, the strategy is to wait for the content of Moraes' response before deciding to present appeals. Jair Bolsonaro's defense may also contest the measure. The requests would be analyzed by the rapporteur himself or by the First Panel, formed by Moraes, Flávio Dino, Cristiano Zanin and Cármen Lúcia.

On Monday (13), Moraes suspended Flávio's visits to his father as he understood that the senator had failed to comply with the precautionary measure that prevents the former president from using social media directly or indirectly. Over the weekend, Flávio released a letter written by Bolsonaro.

The senator, who is a lawyer and has formally been part of his father's defense team since March, called the National Attorney's Office for the Defense of OAB Prerogatives to try to preserve direct contact with the former president.

Privately, a STF minister considered the ban on visits a negative public gesture and compared the case with the situation of Lula (PT), who, when he was in prison in 2018, was able to write and publish letters. For the judge, maintaining the restriction until after the first round could be interpreted as interference in the election.

The decision, however, has the support of members of the Court who have followed Moraes' understanding since the beginning of the process regarding the coup attempt. People close to the minister estimate that, if the issue is taken to the First Panel, there will be a majority to maintain the measure.

Moraes also knows that ministers from a divergent wing of the Supreme Court criticize the suspension. Assistants to Kassio Nunes Marques and André Mendonça, for example, consider the prohibition extreme and remember that the Criminal Execution Law guarantees prisoners the right to maintain contact with the outside world through written correspondence.

Conversely, a minister aligned with Moraes stated that it would be wrong to consider that Flávio visits Bolsonaro only as a lawyer, and not also as a political successor and pre-candidate for the Presidency.

Campaign organizers recognize that the lack of contact could harm the definition of strategies, as Bolsonaro usually advises his son and participates in political decisions. They assess, however, that the published letter has already consolidated Flávio as his father's spokesman among right-wing voters, reducing part of the impact of the restriction.

Allies also claim that Moraes' decisions are seen as partial by the Bolsonarist electorate and could end up strengthening the senator. In a live broadcast this Monday, Flávio accused the minister of trying to interfere in the elections and seeking the return of Jair Bolsonaro to prison.

“Those with a pen cannot decide in the place of those with a vote”, he stated.

Eduardo asks Magnitsky to return after Moraes suspends Flávio's visits to Bolsonaro

In a post on social media on Monday night, the 13th, Eduardo also stated that, due to the ban on visits, other countries should not recognize the Brazilian presidential elections as democratic