Flávio Bolsonaro skates in alliances and counts on Tarcísio for his last appeal

The senator's allies are betting on the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), to reverse this scenario, but members of the Republicans and Podemos claim that the tendency is for the two parties to remain neutral in the presidential dispute, freeing up their state directorates to campaign for whoever is most convenient for the strategy of electing more congressmen.

The Republicans will hold their party convention on Tuesday (4), at 9 am, in Brasília, and Tarcísio is in constant contact with the party president to discuss the election. They will be together this Saturday (1st) at the party's state convention in São Paulo.

Podemos has delegated to the national Executive, led by federal deputy Renata Abreu (SP), the decision on alliances until August 5th (Wednesday), the maximum deadline for registering candidacies.

With the rejection of the PP and the likely denial of the Republicans, Flávio Bolsonaro is isolated in the electoral dispute, with support only from the PL, which will leave him with 20% less electoral propaganda time on TV and radio than President Lula (who managed to unify the left and center-left parties around him, although he also failed to expand alliances to the center).

In this scenario, Flávio will have 4min20s of propaganda in each block of the 12min30 electoral program on TV and radio, one minute less than Lula, who will have 5min32s of each program. In addition to them, only Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Augusto Cury (Avante) will have the right to advertise in the presidential contest. The former governor of Goiás will have 2min2s and the writer will have 36 seconds.

In the Republicans, despite Tarcísio's appeals, the tendency is to approve neutrality in the presidential election, according to four parliamentarians at the top of the party and two national leaders. This is the position of the majority of the party, which prefers freedom to form the best alliances in the states, without needing to be linked to a presidential candidacy seen as problematic.

In exchange for the coalition, Flávio offered the Republicans the vice-presidential ticket - which he wants to be occupied by Daniella Marques, former president of Caixa Econômica Federal. The nomination, however, does not excite the leadership of the acronym, as Daniella is newly affiliated.

To overcome this resistance, Flávio's allies started talking about deputy Pedro Lupion (Republicanos-PR) for the vacancy. He is president of the Agricultural Parliamentary Front (FPA), the ruralist group. People close to the parliamentarian, however, claim that he has a close relationship with Caiado, which makes it difficult for him to accept, and that he would be focused on re-election as deputy.

Campaign members also suggested the possibility of nominating Pereira for a vacancy on the STF (Supreme Federal Court), which was publicly rejected by the party president.

According to two leaders of the party, Flávio's loss of strength after the revelation that he asked for and received money from former banker Daniel Vorcaro, from Banco Master, for the film "Dark Horse" reduced the chances of an alliance months ago. The party's internal polls indicate that this weakened the candidacy, which until then was considered very competitive. Flávio says that the money was just to pay for the feature film about former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Behind the scenes, those who live with Pereira narrate a series of dissatisfactions of the president of the Republicans with the PL, including the leak of the supposed negotiation for a vacancy on the STF. This list also includes the insistence of Flávio's party on joining Tarcísio and attacks from the Bolsonaro clan, such as Eduardo Bolsonaro's declaration, in 2023, that the Republicans were a left-wing party.

According to party politicians, the majority of directorates prefer neutrality, either because they are in an alliance with the party linked to the Lula government in their state, as in the case of the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Hugo Motta (Republicans), in Paraíba, or because of local differences with the PL, as in Mato Grosso, where the two parties will face each other in the dispute for government.

Lula's allies and members of Flávio's campaign also tried to attract Podemos. The acronym is one of those that grew the most in the party window in March and today has 27 federal deputies, in addition to being the largest federal bench in São Paulo.

There was a conversation between the Minister of Institutional Relations, José Guimarães, and other PT cardinals, with the Podemos leadership. According to government leaders, the conversation did not lead to an alliance, but it was positive in paving the way for the discussion about a more significant participation of the party in a Lula 4 government, depending on the size of the elected bench, and moving it away from Flávio.

On the PL side, the possibility of help with the electoral fund was raised. Flávio Bolsonaro's acronym does not prohibit the transfer of resources to allied parties. Despite considering an increase in the electoral fund important, deputies assess that an alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro could hinder the party's general performance.

This Friday (31), Flávio met with the president of Podemos, in a meeting organized by the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB). According to Renata's allies, the invitation for an alliance was reinforced, with the possibility of her running as vice-president, but the trend continues to be neutrality.

The path was also adopted by the PP federation and União Brasil. Until then, Flávio's main bet was to occupy the vice position and boost his advertising time on TV and radio, the group distanced itself from the PL candidacy after the "Dark Horse" case and, mainly, after the criticisms made by Flávio to the senator