Flávio Bolsonaro's allies blame Lula's government for rejecting the center and aim for 2nd round

People close to Flávio even blame the Federal Police and ministers of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) for allegedly frightening politicians with the advancement of investigations if they supported the presidential candidate, who usually defends the impeachment of members of the court.

Which parties decided not to support Flávio Bolsonaro?

This Tuesday (4), Republicans, Podemos and União Brasil announced that they will remain neutral in the election. The PP had already done the same. Allies of the presidential candidate say that these parties, by opting for neutrality, made a political calculation that prioritizes the election of more federal deputies given the fear of a defeat for Flávio. The polarization and internal division of these acronyms between Lulistas in the Northeast and Bolsonaristas in the South mean that the choice between PT and PL could harm the expansion of the benches.

In 2022, Flávio's father, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), ran for a coalition made up of PL, PP and Republicans. Now, the senator is forced to choose a vice-president from the PL and wait for more favorable conditions to attempt a new attack on these parties.

PL bets on alliances in the second round

Bolsonarists' bet is that Flávio will still be able to attract support and negotiate spaces in a possible government in the second round, if there is a prospect that he can defeat Lula. For now, the senator has sought a line of moderation to please centrist politicians and voters. During a hearing on the website O Antagonista and the company G4, this Tuesday (4), he repeated that he was a vaccinated Bolsonaro.

In the same interview, he admitted that the search for a deputy had become "a soap opera". Later, he announced that he would announce his ticket this Wednesday (5).

Flávio minimized his isolation and stated that, despite the party chiefs having "some concerns", the big party members will support his project, mentioning Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) and Tereza Cristina (PP-MS).

How can the pure ticket affect Flávio's candidacy?

Among members of the PL, there is an assessment that the lack of coalitions and the inevitable pure ticket harm Flávio electorally. From a practical point of view, the Bolsonarist will have 20% less advertising time on TV than the PT member, in addition to not being able to count on structure or funding from allied parties.

Furthermore, congressmen claim that, without party alliances, Flávio's candidacy demonstrates fragility and raises doubts among voters about his ability to bring together allies to guarantee governability in the event of victory.

Despite recognizing that the pure ticket is not the ideal scenario, PL names minimize the blow and project a greater arc of support for Flávio in the second round, when they hope for a union of Lula's opponents around the Bolsonarist.

They say they believe that, by inheriting votes from Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo) and Renan Santos (Missão), Flávio will surpass Lula in the polls and, consequently, count on the help of the centrão, who preferred to preserve himself at this first moment.

"If we don't have the ideal world, let's do what we can. I expect that we will all be together in the second round, which will be the decisive stage. I think that this neutrality will not reach until election day", says senator Efraim Filho (PL-PB), candidate for governor.

State agreements with the center will be maintained

Flávio's allies also claim that the lack of a national alliance does not harm agreements with the center in several states, mainly in the South and Southeast, where the senator must count on the commitment of candidates from this field. The PL will support candidates for governor from PP, União Brasil, Republicans and Podemos in at least eight states.

PL Summit criticizes campaign articulation

At the top of the PL, however, there are complaints about Flávio's political articulation, handed over to his campaign coordinator, senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN). People close to the party president, Valdemar Costa Neto, say that Flávio and Marinho did not know how to wave, build bridges and dialogue with other parties - which led to their current isolation.

This is also the view of the center's leaders, as Folha de S. Paulo showed. The directors also mention scandals involving Flávio, such as his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro, from Banco Master.

Valdemar tried to take the reins in recent days, in the middle of the convention phase, but it was too late, according to the leader's interlocutors. He appointed marketer Duda Lima, who he trusted, to take over the campaign's communications and managed to convince Senator Tereza Cristina, his preferred name, to agree to be Flávio's vice-president, but the PP vetoed the alliance.

Allies attribute isolation to pressure from the Lula government

PL congressmen interviewed by the report came to Marinho's defense, saying that he has skill and intelligence and that the lack of coalitions is due, in their view, to the fear of parties in the center of facing the Palácio do Planalto.

"I believe there is a lot of political pressure from the PT machine," says Congressman Sanderson (PL-RS), who will run for the Senate. "At least these parties won't be with Lula", he adds.

Still according to these parliamentarians, Lula used the public machine to convince the centrão's acronyms to opt for neutrality and, thus, guarantee positions and amendments in a possible future government. They also point out that the fear of being targeted by the PF or the STF mobilized party leaders to avoid disagreeing with the federal government.

Solidariedade leader denies pressure from the STF

Close to Supreme Court ministers, the president of Solidariedade, deputy Paulinho da Força (SP), denies the court's influence on the center's neutrality. "It's easy to pass on his incompetence to others, that was a mistake