Dollar and Stock Exchange fall after Selic cut and with swings on the radar

Abroad, the DXY index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six strong currencies, increased 0.26%. The Ibovespa, in turn, ended the day down 1.22%, at 175,546 points.

Rebecca Nossig, equity strategist at Nomad, states that the opposite movement of the dollar in Brazil in relation to the appreciation trend abroad was a consequence of the tougher stance adopted by the Brazilian Central Bank. "By signaling that interest rates should not fall at an accelerated pace, the monetary authority guarantees that local fixed income will continue to pay attractive premiums for foreign capital", says the expert.

On Wednesday (5), the Copom reduced the basic interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 14% per year, in the fourth consecutive cut in the Selic. The decision was already widely expected by economists.

In the statement released after the decision, the panel did not anticipate the next steps of monetary policy and once again stated that the total size of the cycle of cuts will be defined "in light of new information", given the risks to the inflation trajectory.

Among the highlights that moved the Stock Exchange this Thursday are Bradesco's balance sheet, which recorded recurring net profit of R$7.1 billion in the second quarter, an increase of 16.2% compared to the same period in 2025, and the expectation for Petrobras' results, scheduled for after the market closes.

Bradesco shares fell 1.93%, quoted at R$17.70. Throughout the day, Smart Fit shares led the Ibovespa's losses, with a drop of 7.82%, to R$18.38, after the publication, the day before, of a balance sheet below market expectations.

Banco do Brasil shares also fell sharply this Thursday, falling 3.65%, to R$20.28.

According to Ian Lopes, economist at Valor Investimentos, the drop in Banco do Brasil's shares in relation to its peers reflects a sequence of negative results from the institution, which makes the market more rigorous with the stock.

Augusto Parente, founding partner of AW Capital, states that, as the bank is going through a more delicate moment, the market is already trying to price the results for the second quarter, which will be released on the 12th. The bank's latest balance sheets were heavily impacted by the increase in defaults in agribusiness.

Banco do Brasil's profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 fell 40% compared to the same period of the previous year, to R$5.7 billion.

Parente also believes that the fall of the Stock Exchange this Thursday was a short-term reaction to the statement released by Copom. Although the interest rate cut was already priced in, the market interpreted the statement as tougher and more cautious. "The speech showed concern about the numerous uncertainties surrounding the current economic scenario, whether domestic or international."

In the opinion of Matheus Nascimento, credit analyst at Oby Capital, the banks' balance sheet season tends to be positive, but less strong than the market expected.

"Bradesco presented a better result, but still with some default pressure. Banco Inter also released numbers with some pressure related to default. The main factor for Banco do Brasil continues to be precisely this increase in default. This recovery probably will not yet appear in the second quarter."

Nascimento also highlights that BB Seguridade also presented results below expectations. "The group's insurance company, which has strong exposure to agribusiness, reported slightly worse numbers at the margin. This whole background helps explain the drop of just over 3% in shares."

Regarding the Copom's decision, Otávio Araújo, senior consultant at ZERO Markets Brasil, states that the combination between the BC's cautious stance, the uncertainties surrounding inflation and geopolitical developments in the Middle East tends to keep the market in waiting mode, with investors paying attention to both corporate balance sheets and global signals about risk and monetary policy.

For Gustavo Sung, chief economist at Suno Research, this Wednesday's BC statement was clearer than that of the previous meeting and should not generate the same confusion seen in the last decision.

"I believe this statement is more tied up. Without forward guidance [a monetary policy tool in which a central bank publicly communicates its intentions regarding the future direction of interest rates], I also think it is an important point, given the level of uncertainty about the basic scenario."

According to Sung, the BC's decision document also reinforces that there are still several risks to inflation, such as the unanchoring of expectations, the conflict in the Middle East and climate issues (such as El Niño) - which could affect food prices and measures to encourage economic activity. On Wall Street, the main stock exchanges closed the day falling. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.29% and 0.06%, respectively, while the Dow Jones registered a drop of 0.85%.

On the international scene, investors also continue to follow developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran.

Iran and Oman have proposed an agreement to end the war in the Middle East, but there has been no US comment on the proposal. At the same time, Iran warned Persian Gulf countries that any new US attack on their territory would trigger retaliation against essential energy infrastructure across the region, according to five sources interviewed by Reuters.

At around 5:10 pm, a barrel of Brent oil rose 4.34%, quoted at US$82.90.

Future interest rates closed the day rising at almost all points on the curve. The DI for January 2028 increased to 13.870%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. At the long end of the curve, the DI for January