Brazil's GDP could gain R$192 billion with strategy for critical minerals, says study

The material, prepared by researchers from UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais) and UFJF (Federal University of Juiz de Fora), analyzes the impacts that the expansion of this chain could have on the Brazilian economy and the job market.

Two strategies were considered. In the first, mineral production is mainly aimed at exports, and investments in the area are financed only by domestic resources - without foreign capital. In this scenario, the impact on GDP is R$128.7 billion by 2050, with 304 thousand new jobs created.

The second scenario considers a greater participation of foreign investments in the sector and a national strategy to add value to the chain. In other words, in addition to being exported, critical minerals would be processed in the country and used by the national industry.

In this hypothesis, the accumulated impact on GDP grows to R$192.1 billion, with 750 thousand new jobs created over the next 25 years.

According to Amcham, the study made the calculations considering projections to estimate the demand for critical minerals, which include the copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earths chains, which are considered essential for the energy transition and the defense industry.

Brazil's GDP closed 2025 at R$12.7 trillion. Today, the mineral extractive industry contributes around 4% of this total.

The ability to extract and process critical minerals is one of the central points in the current economic discussion. The study launched by Amcham details that, currently, Brazilian industry is concentrated in the initial stages of the chain (simple extraction and processing), with little processing and manufacturing of items with higher added value.

“In 2023, for example, only 5% of the lithium extracted in the country was processed domestically, and refined nickel represented less than 40% of total production,” says the document.

The study data shows that breaking this pattern can have more intense economic effects. In the scenario in which Brazil processes these minerals internally to manufacture batteries and vehicles, the manufacturing industry could grow 1.82% - almost triple the growth expected in the export-only scenario. In addition, sectors such as electrical machinery and equipment could register a jump of 16.7%

The study also touches on one of the topics considered most sensitive in the global conversation about critical minerals: the presence of foreign capital in this industry.

Due to the geopolitical importance that the sector has gained in recent years, the discussion began to be carried out not only through an economic lens, but also through national sovereignty.

Amcham argues that attracting foreign investment is a pillar for the country to stop being a mere exporter of commodities.

"The greater the capacity to attract investments, the greater the transformation of this mineral wealth into value, technology, jobs and industrial and economic development", states the president of Amcham Brasil, Abrão Neto, in the document.

The creation of filters and barriers to foreign investments in this sector is under discussion in the bill that establishes a national policy on critical minerals and rare earths. The text, approved by the Chamber of Deputies in May, is still awaiting consideration by the Senate.

The project foresees strong State action, but without direct entry into the production area. It also creates incentives for processing and control mechanisms over possible influence by foreign interests.