Super El Niño should cause frequent heat waves and impact agriculture in the interior of SP: ‘it is not immune’, experts warn

What is El Niño and how it can affect your daily life The interior of São Paulo is not immune to the so-called super El Niño, although the region does not suffer from impacts as severe as those expected in the North, Northeast and South of Brazil. Cities in São Paulo are expected to experience more intense and frequent heat waves, in addition to irregular rainfall. Understand how the climate phenomenon can interfere with production and the market in different sectors of agriculture in Piracicaba (SP) and the region, according to analyzes by experts consulted by g1. Instead of a fixed and predictable pattern, like the drought in the Amazon or the floods in the South, the interior of São Paulo is marked by strong climate fluctuations and extreme events. ?El Niño is characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming alters wind circulation and changes rainfall and temperature patterns in various parts of the planet. After breaking the record for the lowest temperature of the year, Piracicaba reached 30ºC in the middle of winter Claudia Assencio/g1 Agriculture in the Piracicaba region With the tendency for rainfall and temperatures above average, sugarcane production in the Piracicaba region (SP) should benefit. The vegetable sector, on the other hand, should be harmed, estimates professor and researcher Fábio Marin, from the Department of Biosystems Engineering (LEB) at the “Luiz de Queiroz” School of Agriculture, campus of the University of São Paulo (Esalq/USP) in the city. Follow g1 Piracicaba on Instagram "For our region, as it is a transition zone, the impacts of El Niño are not as pronounced as expected for Rio Grande do Sul and the North and Northeast Regions. In years of strong El Niño, we normally have an increase in sugarcane production in the region, with benefits also for pastures and other crops, bringing, in general, benefits to producers", he pointed out

Hortaliças Marin also states that the main difference in 2026 should be the temperature. “Projections indicate up to 2 °C above average, increasing water demand and management challenges in horticulture”, as reiterated in an interview with Cepea-Esalq researchers, by Hortifruti Brasil magazine. "The most negative impact is due to vegetables, which suffer from excess humidity and strong heat, with a possible impact on prices during summer 26/27", said the agrometeorologist and specialist in modeling agricultural systems. The sugarcane harvest could lose productivity as the heat wave and lack of rain continue, says the vice-president of Coplacana de Piracicaba Claudia Assencio/g1 READ ALSO When was the last 'super' El Niño? Understand why the interval between extreme events has been shortening Buoys, submerged robots and satellites: how scientists measure the ocean to detect El Niño El Niño 2026: what it is, why scientists are on alert and how it could affect your life São Paulo is not in a neutral zone The predicted scenario with El Niño is that of increasingly intense heat waves and cold fronts. São Paulo, highlights the climatologist, is exposed “simultaneously to the possibility of being reached by prolonged periods of drought and high air temperatures”, as well as storms that can cause flash floods, floods and flooding. Vegetable producers lose production after storms in Piracicaba Edijan Del Santo/EPTV Climatologist Paulo Nobre, from the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) and member of the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP-JSC), states that the global increase in air, sea and continent temperatures intensifies atmospheric instability across the planet. "This means that atmospheric disturbances are becoming more intense and frequent over all continents. The interior of São Paulo is no exception. With the evolution of the current El Niño-Southern Oscillation event, rightly called Super El Niño, cities and countryside in the South, Southeast and Central-West regions of Brazil must prepare for the occurrence of intense precipitation and heat waves", he warns. The expert points out that the overlap with El Niño increases climate extremes. “As occurred during the same phenomenon in 2024, with extreme droughts in the Amazon and very intense rainfall in states such as Rio Grande do Sul and São Paulo,” he said. El Niño in São Paulo: 'difficult to predict' Amid uncertainty about the impact of El Niño in the state of São Paulo, researcher Marcelo Seluchi, coordinator of the National Center for Monitoring and Alerting of Natural Disasters (Cemaden), warns that the phenomenon manifests itself in the region through extreme systems that are difficult to predict. Therefore, the scientist emphasizes, it is necessary to always be prepared. Unlike the North, heavily affected by drought, and the South, more vulnerable to floods, São Paulo does not have a fixed pattern of rainfall under the influence of El Niño, with periods of strong floods and severe droughts alternating in its history. Seluchi, in agreement with the other experts interviewed by g1, also indicates that the most consistent and worrying effect in the interior of São Paulo is the increase in the frequency of heat waves, a factor that intensifies evaporation and significantly increases the pressure on water resources and the electrical system. When is El Niño expected to arrive? Carlos Afonso Nobre, researcher at Cemaden and professor at the International MBA in Climate Emergencies: Society, Cities and Forests at Esalq-USP, highlights that predictions from scientific bodies around the world indicate that El Niño will reach its peak from September 2026. “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States, in Europe the ECMWF, the World Meteorological Organization, and here in Brazil Inpe and Cemaden, everyone is predicting that this El Niño will reach a very strong strength, perhaps one of the strongest in the last 100 years", he stated. Noble indica

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