A strong El Niño and a warm Atlantic trigger an alert for extreme heat and drought in Amazonas Archives/Rede Amazônica Amazonas could face extreme heat, below-average rainfall and accelerated river flows between August and October 2026. The alert is based on meteorological projections that point to the strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon and the warming of the Atlantic Ocean, factors that reduce rainfall in the region and increase the risk of drought, fires and supply problems. Meteorologist Andrea Ramos, responsible for the projections, explains that the quarter already corresponds to the hottest and driest period of the year in the state. This year, however, the effects of climate phenomena could worsen the situation. ? El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which changes climate patterns around the world. It happens frequently every two to seven years. In Brazil, the effects tend to be uneven: the South tends to have more rain, while areas of the North and Northeast may experience drier periods. ? Join the g1 AM channel on WhatsApp According to the expert, there is an increased risk of forest fires, problems caused by heat and smoke, as well as restrictions on navigation on the Solimões, Negro, Madeira, Purus and Juruá rivers. What is El Niño and how it can affect your daily life Andrea Ramos also highlights that there is an 81% probability of El Niño reaching the "very strong" category between October and December 2026. According to the most recent bulletin from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2026-2027 El Niño has the potential to become one of the most intense in the historical series. "The most recent projections indicate that the 2026–2027 El Niño has the potential to become one of the most intense in the historical series, but it is still in a strengthening phase. There is the possibility of oceanic intensity comparable to or even greater than the 2023–2024 event, but this is still a projection", explains the meteorologist. Why is it so hot? The high temperatures recorded in recent weeks in Manaus are mainly explained by the Amazonian summer, a period marked by reduced rainfall and cloud cover. "This heat observed in Manaus and a large part of Amazonas is explained, firstly, by the Amazonian summer. With the reduction in rainfall and cloud cover, the incidence of solar radiation on the surface increases, allowing for more intense heating during the day. At the same time, the lower soil humidity reduces the cooling produced by water evaporation", he explained. According to Andrea Ramos, El Niño acts as an intensification factor by favoring a reduction in rainfall in the Center-North of the country. "The Amazonian summer provides the basic seasonal condition for heat, while El Niño acts as a possible intensification factor", he summarizes. AMAZON SUMMER: While the South faces cold, the North begins the hottest period of the year; understand the phenomenon DEFORESTATION: Amazonas remains among the states that deforest the most, despite the historic drop in the Amazon Heat close to 36°C marks the weekend and Monday in Manaus Nainy Castelo Branco/Rede Amazônica Can temperatures break records? The climate forecast from the Cearense Foundation of Meteorology and Water Resources (Funceme), the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) and the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies of the National Institute for Space Research (Cptec/Inpe) indicates above-average temperatures throughout the Amazon between August and October. In this scenario, there is the possibility of new heat records, especially if there are long periods without rain. Temperatures above 35°C are expected to occur at different times throughout the quarter. Marks close to or above 40°C are less frequent, but cannot be ruled out. "The combination of the Amazonian summer, below-average rainfall, dry soil and the strengthening of El Niño creates an environment favorable to episodes of intense heat and even new local records. Temperatures between 38°C and 39°C have precedents; reaching or exceeding 40°C would be an exceptional condition", he highlights. River ebb is a concern The combination of little rain and heat accelerates the descent of rivers by reducing the replenishment of water in the basins and increasing evapotranspiration. The Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB) has already identified the beginning of the low tide in the Solimões and Negro rivers, in Manaus. Although levels are still close to the historical average, the expert highlights the need for constant monitoring. The peak of the low water usually occurs between September and November. The Madeira, Purus and Juruá rivers may face navigation restrictions at different periods. The Solimões and Negro rivers are also expected to be critical points for vessel traffic, which could make it difficult to supply riverside communities. Heat, smoke and health risks In Manaus, the combination of high temperatures and high air humidity should increase the feeling of stuffiness, even at night. In the interior of the state, the scenario may be even more complex, especially in areas affected by smoke and drier air. "In interior areas, especially where the air is drier and there is smoke, the problem can simultaneously involve heat, dehydration, respiratory irritation and worsening air quality. It is important to differentiate between low relative humidity and a feeling of stuffiness", warns Andrea Ramos. The meteorologist explains that relative humidity can drop significantly in the afternoons, favoring dry airways. During the night, high humidity tends to increase thermal sensation and discomfort caused by heat. FIND OUT MORE: New environmental licensing law threatens Conservation Units and biodiversity in AM, experts point out Bigger than Uruguay: Amazonas has a protected area the size of a country, but faces inspection challenges Drought in Manaus leads to difficulty in getting around Reproduction/TV