Graham’s death triggers a scramble to replace him – what happens next?

Whoever McMaster appoints will likely have a leg up in a special primary election on 11 August to fill Graham’s place on the November ballot, which he won despite facing five challengers from his party in June. That election calendar favors candidates with wide name recognition and deep institutional support.

The candidate would still run against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who gained significant support in the red state, but still faces an uphill challenge.

Congressman Joe Wilson has reportedly expressed interest in the seat. Of the Republican delegation to Washington, Wilson is the longest tenured. He has represented South Carolina’s second congressional district since 2001, and his activism within the state’s Republican party predates its dominance in the state’s politics.

“With the passing of Senator Lindsay Graham he will always be cherished as an American Patriot tireless for peace through strength successful defeating totalitarians,” Wilson wrote on X. “All three generations of the Wilson family extend deepest sympathy and appreciation of his dedicated service.”

The benefits of Graham’s four-term seniority as senator featured prominently in the arguments for his re-election this year. Graham faced more challengers this year than any other re-election campaign in his lengthy career, which suggested some dissatisfaction with his service among the party base. Nonetheless, Graham won renomination with 57% of the vote.

Mark Lynch, a Greenville businessman, came in second with 29% of the vote. Lynch was a critic of Graham’s posture toward federal spending, immigration, and budget issues.

McMaster, who was elected as lieutenant governor in 2014, became governor in 2017 when Trump appointed South Carolina governor Nikki Haley to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. After winning two full terms in 2018 and 2022, he is the longest-serving governor in the state’s history.

The state constitution does not forbid McMaster from naming himself as Graham’s successor and his term-limited time as governor ends on 13 January 2027. But convention dictates that McMaster would resign, allowing lt governor Pamela Evette to ascend to the governorship for the remainder of the term and appoint McMaster.

Historically, that has not worked out well. In all but one case over the last century, voters deposed governors who were appointed to an open Senate seat. That includes South Carolina, when governor Donald Russell resigned in 1965 so lt governor Robert McNair could appoint him to the Senate seat vacated by the death of Olin Johnston. Voters tossed Russell in the 1966 Democratic primary.

McMaster could instead appoint Evette. But the outgoing lieutenant governor lost a statewide race only three weeks ago, falling in a bid for the gubernatorial nomination to attorney general Alan Wilson – adoptive son of Joe Wilson – in a primary runoff. It suggests a rough road if she entered the compressed primary race.

Congressman Ralph Norman, who placed third in the Republican gubernatorial primary, has also entered speculation as a successor to Graham, as has Nancy Mace, the ultraconservative congresswoman who came in fifth in a bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

“South Carolina lost a giant last night,” Mace wrote on X. “For more than three decades, Lindsey Graham gave everything he had to this state and this country, from the Air Force to the United States Senate. We did not always agree, but no one ever questioned his love for South Carolina or the fight he brought to every room he walked into.”

Speaking to NBC News on Meet The Press, Trump said he spoke with Graham on Saturday night after the senator flew home from a trip to Ukraine, describing Graham as like a member of the family to him and suggested that he may have been the last person to speak to the senator before his death. “He sounded a little tired. But perfect! But a little bit tired. He had a right to be. He was a worker.”

Trump said he is considering endorsements.

“I have somebody that I think would be great,” Trump said. “But, I don’t want to say it now, because it’s too soon with Lindsey. I don’t to even talk about anybody, but I do have somebody that I think is really good.”

Graham had been polling three to five points ahead of Andrews, the Democratic opponent. South Carolina last elected a Democrat to the US senate in 1998, and has not elected any Democrat to statewide office since 2006. The closest statewide election for Democrats was James Smith’s bid to unseat McMaster in 2018, which he lost by eight points.

But political uncertainty over South Carolina’s substantial population growth was a factor when the state senate chose in May to rebuff Trump’s call for Republicans to redistrict South Carolina’s congressional lines. And Democrats are contesting every state legislative seat for the first time in a generation this year.

“I hope that South Carolinians will join me in setting partisanship aside and offering gratitude to Senator Lindsey Graham for his service to the great state of South Carolina,” Andrews wrote on X.