Flávio's campaign calculates losses with banning visits and sees impact on strategies

The senator's interlocutors claim that the electoral damage is evident, as it prevents the pre-candidate from discussing the campaign with his father, devising strategies and giving his opinion on decisions. But they see the ban being overturned because it violates democracy.

Pre-campaign coordinator, senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) stated that Moraes' decision, which he called disproportionate and authoritarian, is "a clear interference in the political game". Other members of the campaign stated that the decision would be immoral and illegal, violating the prisoner's right to communicate and have contact with his lawyers, given that Flávio is registered as a member of his father's defense.

With Bolsonaro stuck at home, Flávio had been discussing his pre-campaign with his father and, according to allies, does not make decisions without consulting him first. It was even expected that Bolsonaro would release a list of pre-candidates that he supports in each state.

Allies of Flávio and Bolsonaro politicians began to compare Bolsonaro's situation with that of Lula, highlighting that the PT president, when arrested at the Federal Police headquarters in Curitiba in 2018, also published letters and had at least one of them published by Fernando Haddad (PT), then a candidate for President.

Lula was not subject to the ban on correspondence or public demonstrations. Under house arrest, Bolsonaro is prohibited from using social media, even through third parties.

Through a note sent to journalists, Flávio Bolsonaro's pre-campaign rescued interviews and letters from Lula in prison.

"One of the letters [from September 2018] with a clear electoral bias promoted the officialization of Fernando Haddad's candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic, including a request for votes for his successor. [...] In fact, Lula's letter to Brazilians was read, in front of the PF Superintendency of Curitiba, by several PT leaders and posted on social networks", says the text.

In Bolsonaro networks, the discourse is that Flávio and Bolsonaro are victims of persecution by Moraes and that the measure aims to interfere in the election by blocking the possibility of the senator discussing his campaign with the former president.

"The contrast is evident. Arrested in 2018, Lula received hundreds of visits and maintained political dialogue with his allies, including Fernando Haddad. During the electoral campaign, he spoke out publicly through letters, even asking for votes for the candidate who replaced him. While still in prison, he gave interviews to the press in 2019", wrote Marinho.

Among opponents, the interpretation is that Flávio forced Moraes' decision as a victimization strategy – an interpretation also shared by members of the centrão and allies of Michelle Bolsonaro (PL).

"Flávio Bolsonaro did not read Jair Bolsonaro's letter out of naivety. He knew that the court decision prohibited the use of social networks, directly or indirectly, and transformed the violation of the precautionary measure into a political strategy", published deputy Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ).

Four politicians from the center told Folha that the decision has little electoral impact, but helps to expand the Bolsonarist discourse of persecution by the STF, by allowing comparison with Lula in 2018.

"Despite being critical of Bolsonarism, and thinking that it is an undemocratic right, this decision serves to unnecessary victimization of Bolsonaros. It is a decision that has gone beyond the point. Especially because, the more the family talks to each other, the more fights there are", said deputy Fausto Pinato (União Brasil-SP).

For deputy Evair de Melo (Republicanos-ES), one of the deputy leaders of the opposition, the ban takes Flávio off the hook. "This decision brings the STF to the center of the electoral debate, revealing that the STF has a side and warming up militancy," he stated.

As Folha de S.Paulo showed, people close to Michelle claim that the publication of the letter increased the risk that Bolsonaro would be sent back to jail and demonstrated that Flávio would be willing to sacrifice his father in search of an electoral benefit.

For these allies, the senator may have taken this action even thinking about removing Michelle's father through prison, after the public disagreement between the pre-candidate and the former first lady.

The senator's aides, including those from the legal department, deny that the publication of the letter premeditated the risk of punishment – for them, the measure would not violate the rules of house arrest.

"Since the proclamation of the 1988 Constitution, leaving a prisoner incommunicado has always been seen by the Federal Supreme Court as something unconstitutional. However, today's decision brings President Jair Bolsonaro closer to incommunicado," said pre-campaign lawyer Tracy Reinaldet, highlighting that he will appeal to "reverse this illegal and unconstitutional situation."