‘We will continue to protect the PIX’, says Durigan after US tariff Few analysts have followed the rise and fall of nations with the depth of Ruchir Sharma. A global strategist, resource manager and student of the economic cycles that define the destiny of countries, he is chairman of Rockefeller International, founder of Breakout Capital and columnist for the Financial Times. Author of works such as Breakout Nations and What Went Wrong With Capitalism, Sharma combines macroeconomic analysis with direct field observation in emerging countries — a methodology built over three decades. ??Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send it to g1 His central thesis about Latin America is based on a fact that he considers inconvenient, but undeniable: historically, investors obtain much higher returns under right-wing governments in the region. It is this dynamic that largely explains the good performance of Latin American markets in recent years. And that is why Brazil, for Sharma, is the great unknown of 2026 — perhaps the most important election of the year worldwide. The scenario became even more charged with the decision of Donald Trump's government to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian products. If the measure comes into force on July 22, Brazil will become the second country most taxed by the United States on the planet, behind only China. For Sharma, the direct impact of the measure is more limited than the number suggests, but its effects on foreign investment and, above all, on the October electoral board, are more complex to calculate. In an interview with BBC News Brasil, he talks about what this decision means for the presidential race, the fiscal risk under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) or Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), China's structural fragility, the artificial intelligence bubble and the impact of wars in the Middle East and Ukraine on the global economy. BBC News Brazil – The American government announced a 25% tariff on Brazilian products, making Brazil the second country most taxed by the USA in the world. What is the real impact of this decision? Sharma – The 25% tariff applies to products that total around US$14.9 billion in Brazilian exports. But considering exemptions — Section 232 and others — the actual impact is narrower than the number suggests. In direct terms, the effect is limited. The biggest risk is of the second order: the impact on foreign direct investment and the fact that this is Trump's second attempt to use tariffs as leverage on Brazil in 13 months. This signals that the relationship is structurally contested by this American government, it is not an isolated dispute. BBC News Brasil – And electorally? Could this decision change the calculation of the October presidential race? Sharma – Lula’s narrative of sovereignty and nationalism could work in his favor, something similar to what happened in Mexico. But his approval ratings are under pressure because of the cost of living and weak growth. If the economy does not react, this advantage may not be sustained. The Lula government has already signaled that it does not see a path for negotiations before October. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would create pressure for quick concessions on digital regulation and technology platforms in exchange for the removal of tariffs — which has its own domestic political cost. In the short term, the political reading favors Lula's sovereignty narrative. But the medium-term economic pressure to negotiate with Washington is independent of who wins — this changes the negotiating stance of the next government more than it defines who becomes President in October. For Sharma, 25% tariffs announced by the Trump administration on Brazilian products have a narrower impact than the number suggests Getty Images via BBC BBC News Brazil – You said at the beginning of the year that the Brazilian election could be the most important in the world in 2026. With the election three months away, how do you place this event in the global context? Sharma – Investors have been looking at Latin America with increasing interest in the last year, even though the region is not seen as an artificial intelligence powerhouse. A big reason is the increasing number of right-wing governments coming to power. Regardless of political preferences, the fact is that investors historically obtain greater returns when right-wing governments take over in Latin America. We did research on this: in dollars, in the first two years of a new government, when the left comes to power, the return tends to be around 16%. When it is the right, this number rises to more than double — around 37%. This expectation that more right-wing governments will come to power is helping Latin America. And Brazil is central to this story. BBC News Brasil – Lula's main opponent today is Flávio Bolsonaro. But, even on the right, there are doubts about the fiscal commitment. Could investors end up disappointed anyway? Sharma – Yes, that is correct. But investors' initial reaction, at least, will be based on history: Markets tend to do well when a new leader comes to power, and they tend to do well when a right-wing government takes over in Latin America. These are facts. Therefore, the initial reaction to a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would probably be positive — and then we will have to see what the concrete policies will be. So far, wherever right-wing governments have come to power in Latin America, investors have responded well, capital has returned. Part of this happens in anticipation, part after the government is already in power — and this has been the case throughout the region. BBC News Brasil – What if Lula is re-elected? Sharma – Brazil's fiscal situation is delicate, especially at a time when the world is paying more attention to countries' debt. If Lula is re-elected, investors' initial reaction will be negative. But I believe he will know that if he tries to spend