Unemployment falls to 5.4% and has the lowest rate until June in the historical series

Economists say the job market is still showing strength, but is beginning to show clearer signs of slowing down. One of the signs pointed out is the behavior of the average income, practically stable at R$3,738 per month.

Unemployment was at 6.1% in the three months ending in March, which serve as a basis for comparison in the Continuous Pnad (Continuous National Household Sample Survey).

The rate of 5.4% was in line with the median of financial market projections, which was also 5.4%, according to the Bloomberg agency.

"The job market remains heated, but has been growing in a more measured way", says economist Bruno Imaizumi, from consultancy 4intelligence.

"The year 2026 still has high interest rates and is fraught with a lot of uncertainty. Employers are more anxious when making decisions", he adds, citing the doubts generated by the proximity of the elections.

When presenting the Pnad numbers, IBGE analyst William Kratochwill said that the drop in unemployment was driven by the opening of job vacancies. He stated that the market is going through a moment of "transition".

The speech was a reference to the seasonal behavior of the data. The unemployment rate is usually pressured at the beginning of the year by the closure of temporary positions and tends to decline as the months go by.

"The market is getting ready for the second half of the year," said William.

Pnad covers the formal job market, with a formal contract or CNPJ, and the informal sector, without these records.

The population engaged in some type of work reached 103.1 million by June. It is the highest number in the entire historical series.

The number of workers in this condition grew 1.1% compared to the period ended in March (1.1 million more).

The increase in those employed was driven by the creation of vacancies in the group that includes activities such as public administration, education and health (489 thousand more people) and in transport, storage and mail (235 thousand more).

In the first case, William drew attention to education contracts in the public sector.

In the second, he cited the growth of workers responsible for activities such as deliveries and road transport of passengers. Application deliverers are part of the group, according to the researcher.

"People are doing whatever they can to earn an income to support their family. So, the new dynamism of the market, more technological, may be influencing this", he stated.

The number of employees in the private sector with a formal contract (formal) remained practically stable at 39.4 million until June, but it is the highest of all quarters in the series. Unregistered public sector employees also renewed the Pnad maximum (3.5 million).

BRAZIL HAS 5.9 MILLION UNEMPLOYED

The number of unemployed people fell to 5.9 million by June. It is the lowest for this quarter in the historical series. The group fell 10.9% compared to the period up to March (less 718 thousand).

In official statistics, a person aged 14 or over who does not have a job needs to be looking for opportunities to be considered unemployed. It's not enough to just not work.

For Claudia Moreno, from C6 Bank, the market remains strong, despite "some moderation in income growth".

"Even though the slowdown in economic activity may reduce the pace of job creation throughout 2026, we expect the unemployment rate to remain at historically low levels," he says. C6 predicts an indicator of around 5.5% at the end of the year

PARKING INCOME

At R$3,738 per month, the average income from work until June fell 1.5% compared to the period until March (R$3,795). The IBGE, however, considers the result to be stability.

This is because the variation was not statistically significant, remaining within the research's margin of error.

According to William Kratochwill, the inclusion of people with less education in the market may have pushed the indicator down.

Average income adds up the resources obtained from work and divides the amount by the number of people employed.

In the view of economist Leonardo Costa, from the financial institution Asa, the situation remains "relatively favorable" for income.

“PNAD continues to indicate resilience in the job market, with a gradual slowdown,” he says.

Analysts say that low unemployment in recent years partly reflected the positive performance of economic activity. The economy continues with stimulus measures from the Lula (PT) government before the elections.

Another issue cited is the demographic change underway in the country. With the aging of the population, the tendency is for a portion of Brazilians to leave the market and stop looking for work.

This reduces pressure on the unemployment rate, but challenges the pension system, because the demand for pensions tends to grow.

The market is still influenced by vacancies linked to technology. A study by FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation) estimated last year that working on apps reduced unemployment by 1 percentage point.

END OF SCALE 6X1

The release of Pnad comes at a time when Brazil is discussing the end of the 6x1 scale (six days of work and one day of rest per week).

The project divides opinions. It is celebrated by workers' representatives, but is met with resistance from part of the business community.

Economist Christopher Pissarides, winner of the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics, told Folha de S. Paulo this month that countries are moving towards reducing workload and that people tend to become more productive as a result.

CRISIS AT IBGE

The presidency of IBGE, occupied by economist Marcio Pochmann, announced last month the change of two coordinators of the body.

One of them is Adriana Beringuy, from Copad (Household Sample Research Coordination),