El Niño should pressure food inflation in 2027; beans and rice lead the way up Super El Niño, which could intensify rains and floods in the coming months, is expected to affect agricultural production and put pressure on food prices in Brazil. In 2026, the effects should still be limited. In 2027, food inflation at home could close the year between 7.5% and 9.5%. At its peak, between August and November, it can reach 11%. ?? Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send it to g1 This is what a study by MB Associados, published exclusively by GloboNews, shows. According to the consultancy's calculations, the impact on the IPCA could reach 0.9 percentage points in 2027. Beans, whose production fell in 2026, and rice, still affected by the 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul — the main producing state —, should lead the increases. "The effect is quite widespread in Brazilian agricultural and livestock production, but some products tend to feel more, such as rice and beans, which have an important weight in the IPCA of foods. There is also the effect on corn, which ends up putting pressure on animal proteins", says Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados. When will I pay more? In what? According to Vale, the impact will gradually reach supermarket shelves. Historically, the biggest effects on prices appear between nine and 10 months after the peak of the climate phenomenon, predicted for October or November. Fruit and vegetables could be the first to be affected, especially in regions that face intense rains, in the first months of 2027. In the second half of the year, the pressure should reach grains and then animal proteins, including beef. The economist also points out a possible impact on road freight. If El Niño causes drought in the North and Northeast, the flow of production through ports in these regions could be harmed. With difficulties in navigating rivers, part of the cargo tends to be directed to ports in the South and Southeast, increasing demand for road transport and putting pressure on freight. In the last El Niño, between 2023 and 2024, this bottleneck increased costs by between 10% and 22%. The impacts of the climate event add to other challenges faced by agribusiness. Vale cites the increase in defaults in the sector and the effects of the war in the Middle East, which made fuel and fertilizers more expensive. "We are talking about a sector that, wherever you look, has pressure on costs, production, prices and, now, the climate issue. It will be a difficult year for agriculture and, in the end, the impact could also reach the consumer", he states.