The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced this Wednesday (8) that it improved its projections for Brazil's economy in 2026 and 2027, but began to see a slowdown in activity next year, according to a report. The update to the Global Economic Perspective report showed that the IMF now sees a 2.4% expansion in Gross Domestic Product this year, above the 1.9% calculated in April. ??Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send to g1 For next year, the Fund raised its estimate by 0.2 percentage points, but the expected growth rate of 2.2% is still below that of 2026. The Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, had already announced last week that the IMF would readjust the projection for the Brazilian economy in 2026. The expected performance now for this year is slightly above the 2.3% increase in GDP that Brazil recorded in 2025, which was the worst since 2020, according to IBGE data. In the first quarter of this year, Brazilian GDP grew 1.1% compared to the three immediately previous months, the strongest quarterly result in a year. Vehicle production at the Stellantis factory in Goiana (PE) Disclosure/Stellantis The IMF's projection for this year is better than that of the Ministry of Finance, which predicted in May an expansion of 2.3%, and than that of the Central Bank, of 2.0%. The IMF's accounts are also more optimistic than those of the market, which sees growth of 1.99% in 2026 and 1.69% in 2027, according to the most recent Focus survey released by the BC. For Latin America and the Caribbean, the IMF now sees expansion of 2.4% in 2026 (an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the estimate in April) and 2.7% in 2027 (stable). In the case of emerging market and developing economies, of which Brazil is a part, growth was estimated at 3.8% this year, a drop of 0.1 point, going to 4.5% next year, an increase of 0.3 point compared to April. "The revisions are heterogeneous, reflecting differences in commodity dependence, geographic exposure, tourism remittances and receipts, sensitivity to financial conditions, and position in the global technology value chain," the IMF said. IMF reduces global growth forecast The IMF revised downwards this Wednesday its global growth forecast for 2026, to 3.0%, warning of the continued risks posed by the war in the Middle East, the fragmentation of trade and possible corrections in market expectations regarding artificial intelligence. The Fund said the world economy avoided a sharper recession as a result of the war, with the demand boost in the technology sector helping to offset the war-related drop in energy supplies. Growth is expected to recover to 3.4% in 2027, but is still below the 3.5% average seen in 2024 and 2025. The IMF raised its inflation forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% compared with April, but said it is expected to fall to 3.9% next year. Energy prices are 25% higher now than before the war began on February 28, 2026, and will remain higher, according to the IMF. The new forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will begin reopening in mid-July, returning to pre-war conditions by March 2027. "To date, the global economy as a whole has weathered the shock of war better than feared," the IMF said in an update to its Global Economic Outlook report. The observation is that the projection is more optimistic for energy exporters and countries strongly integrated into the technology sector, while commodity importers that are not well positioned to benefit from AI advances have had their growth forecasts revised downwards. Global trade growth is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2026, from 5% in 2025, a year marked by strong anticipation of purchases due to US tariffs, before recovering to 4.3% in 2027. Deniz Igan, head of the World Economic Studies division of the IMF's Research Department, said the global economy is proving more resilient than expected in April, despite the impact of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices were higher and confidence was low, but the release of strategic oil reserves and commercial stocks (along with increased energy efficiency) helped offset supply shortages. The private sector also adapted quickly, finding alternative routes and sources of supply. "So far things have gone well, but that does not eliminate existing risk factors, particularly with war," Igan told Reuters. A collapse of the peace agreement and a resumption of fighting could pose major risks, as countries have already exhausted much of their reserves and would have less room for maneuver. On Tuesday, the US military launched a new wave of attacks against Iran and revoked a license allowing the country to sell oil after three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, putting further pressure on an already fragile ceasefire. "A new conflict in the region will find the global economy in a worse situation than the first time," Igan said, adding that a simultaneous effort by many countries to rebuild their oil reserves could also trigger a rise in prices. "If there is a perception that this is going to drag on, then both the incentive and the margin to use these reserves are going to diminish very quickly," she said. Inflation and inflation expectations have risen, but mostly in the short term, and so far there is little evidence that expectations are changing in the medium term, Igan said. Strait of Hormuz Jornal Nacional / Reproduction Scenarios for war The updated version of the IMF report abandoned the three distinct scenarios it had released in April, before the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, returning to a more traditional reference forecast. Comparisons were made with the April reference forecast, which assumed a shorter war. The IMF maintained its growth forecast for the US economy in 2026 at 2.3%, and raised the projection for 2027 by 0.1 percentage point compared to the April forecast, to 2.2%. The growth forecast for the euro zone in 2026 rose to 0.9%, compared to 1.1% in April, while for 2027 the account was maintained at 1.2%. The forecast is now that China's growth will reach 4.6% in 2026, above the 4.4% predicted in April, and that expansion in 2027 will reach 4.1%, against 4% in April. India, one of the world's fastest-growing economies, also had a small downward revision to its forecast for 2026, from 6.5% in April to 6.4%, but the IMF raised its forecast for 2027 from 6.5% to 6.7%. The Middle East and Central Asia region, the most affected by the war, had its growth forecast reduced by 1.2 percentage points compared to April, to 0.7%, although the IMF also raised its forecast for 2027 by 1.9 percentage points, to 6.5%.