The financial market reduced its average estimate for inflation in 2026, from 5.30% to 5.16%. The expectation is part of the "Focus Bulletin", released this Monday (13) by the Central Bank (BC), based on a survey carried out last week with more than 100 financial institutions. Economists also maintained their projection of 14% in relation to the basic interest rate, the Selic (see below in this report). ?? For 2026, the inflation estimate fell from 5.30% to 5.16%; ?? For 2027, expectations increased from 4.18% to 4.20%; ?? For 2028, the forecast remained at 3.70%; ?? For 2029, the estimate remained at 3.50%.
Financial market reduces average inflation estimate to 5.16% in 2026
The financial market reduced its average estimate for inflation in 2026, from 5.30% to 5.16%. The expectation is part of the "Focus Bulletin", released this Monday (13) by the Central Bank (BC), based on a survey...
Since the beginning of 2025, with the adoption of the continuous target system, the objective has been to maintain inflation at 3%, being considered within the target if it varies between 1.50% and 4.50%. ? Why does this matter? The higher the inflation, the lower the purchasing power of the population — especially among those earning lower salaries. This occurs because prices rise, while wages do not follow this increase. Interest cut Even with an increase in inflation projections this year and in the coming years, the financial market continues to project a fall in interest rates. Currently, the rate is 14.25% per year — after three cuts this year. The market estimate for the Selic rate at the end of 2026, however, remained at 14% per year; For the end of 2027, the market projection remained at 12% per year. For the end of 2028, analysts' estimates rose to 10.50% per year. June's inflation is the lowest for the month in 3 years, but it is still above the target ceiling established by the Central Bank Jornal Nacional/ Reproduction Economic activity For the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, the market estimate remained at 1.99%. Last year's official GDP result was an expansion of 2.3%, according to official release from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). ?? The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country and serves to measure the performance of the economy. For 2027, the GDP growth projection was reduced to 1.65%. Exchange rate The financial market maintained its estimate for the exchange rate at the end of this year at R$5.20 per dollar. For the end of 2027, the projection of bank economists remained at R$5.28 per dollar.
Source: G1 Economia
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