Advisory from the government of Mato Grosso Brazilian beef exports broke a record in the first half of 2026, but the second half will be more challenging for the sector because of China's import quota and restrictions from the European Union, said the Brazilian Association of Meat Packers (Abrafrigo) this Monday (20). From January to June, beef sales to other countries totaled US$9.929 billion, an increase of 33.4% compared to the same period in 2025, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). ??Do you have any reporting suggestions? Send to g1 In volume, shipments reached 1.811 million tons, growth of 7.3%. According to Abrafrigo, it is the best result in the series for a first semester, both in value and volume. Despite the performance, the entity assesses that the results are likely to lose strength in the second half of the year. The main reason is the exhaustion of the beef export quota to China. The estimate is that the limit of 1.106 million tons destined for Brazil in 2026 has been filled with shipments made until June. As a result, according to Abrafrigo, shipments to China were interrupted in July, as volumes exported above the quota are surcharged by 55%. Furthermore, the risk of suspension of purchases by the European Union from September 3rd. The bloc demands that Brazil prove that it does not use antimicrobials to promote growth in animals. Veto on meat from Brazil: why the European Union wants more control over antibiotics in livestock farming EU vetoes meat from Brazil from September 3 China remains the main destination Beef sales to China grew 50.3% in the first half of 2026, to US$ 4.818 billion. In volume, the increase was 22.6%, to 774.7 thousand tons. The country accounted for 48.5% of revenues obtained from Brazilian exports of meat and beef by-products. Considering only fresh beef, the share reached 53%. According to Abrafrigo, the Chinese government counted in the quota cargoes that arrived at the country's ports from January 1, 2026, even if they had been shipped at the end of 2025. Therefore, the entity estimates that the annual limit has already been reached. Given this scenario, Abrafrigo projects that Brazil could reduce beef sales to China by around US$4 billion in 2026, compared to 2025, when exports to the Asian country totaled US$8.845 billion. The entity states, however, that this drop could be partially compensated if shipments are resumed in the last two months of the year, with cargo arriving at Chinese ports only in January 2027, within next year's quota. Other markets help to compensate The expansion of sales to other markets can reduce part of the impacts of lower Chinese demand. The United States, the second largest buyer of Brazilian beef, increased imports by 14.76% in the first half of the year, to US$1.465 billion. Considering only fresh beef, American purchases grew 41%, to US$ 1.116 billion, while the volume shipped increased 17.3%, to 183.6 thousand tons. According to the entity, the prospects for the American market remain favorable because beef was excluded from the new tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products. Abrafrigo also remembers that the country still faces low domestic production and high prices, which could favor imports. Chile, the third largest destination for Brazilian fresh beef, increased purchases by 33.12%, to US$419.6 million, with a 20% increase in the volume shipped, which reached 70.3 thousand tons. European Union still negotiating certification European Union purchases of Brazilian beef and beef by-products grew 35.26% in the first half of the year, to US$482.65 million. Even so, the bloc may suspend purchases of Brazilian beef from September, when new requirements come into force regarding proof of production free from the use of antimicrobials in the herd. According to Abrafrigo, Brazil is still negotiating with European health authorities a certification model that allows exports to continue, but, so far, there are no concrete results. Market diversification In addition to the United States and Chile, other markets increased purchases of Brazilian beef in the first half of the year: Russia: 62 thousand tons (+34.5%) and revenue of US$ 283.8 million (+48.6%); Hong Kong: US$227.15 million (+33.8%); Saudi Arabia: US$192 million (+31.7%); Egypt: US$179.8 million (+32.2%). Mexico, on the other hand, reduced purchases by 8.13%, to US$253.8 million. According to Abrafrigo, this diversification gains importance given the uncertainties involving China and the European Union. In the first half of the year, 118 countries increased their purchases of Brazilian beef, while 55 reduced purchases.