Rio Grande do Sul once again faces the risk of storms and rainfall above 100 mm

The last week of July will be marked by a new period of intense rain in the southern region of Brazil, with Rio Grande do Sul once again concentrating the largest volumes of precipitation.

The alert is from Climatempo, which highlights that between July 26th and August 1st, the action of low pressure areas, cold fronts and an extratropical cyclone will keep the atmosphere quite unstable, increasing the risk of storms and new disruptions caused by excess rain.

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According to meteorologist Josélia Pegorim, the scenario is worrying because it occurs shortly after an episode of heavy rainfall that caused rivers to overflow in several regions of Rio Grande do Sul. The forecast indicates that many areas of the state could accumulate more than 100 millimeters of rain throughout the week.

The expert highlights that the situation requires attention, as small changes in the position of the instability bands can significantly alter the most affected regions. Furthermore, the ground remains waterlogged and rivers such as Taquari, Jacuí and Caí continue to have high levels, increasing the risk of new overflows.

Most critical period

According to Climatempo's forecast, the 27th, 28th and 29th of July should concentrate the most favorable conditions for severe storms in the south of the country.

In the final stretch of the week, between July 31st and August 1st, the formation of a new cold front associated with an extratropical cyclone could also cause storms.

What causes so much rain?

According to Josélia Pegorim, several meteorological systems will act simultaneously over the south of Brazil until the beginning of August, favoring the persistence of instability. Among them are:

- areas of low atmospheric pressure;

- passage of cold fronts;

- formation of a cold front in the interior of the continent;

- development of an extratropical cyclone;

- cyclonic circulation of winds at medium levels of the atmosphere;

- performance of the low-level jet, which transports heat and humidity from the Amazon.

Between Sunday (26) and Wednesday (29), a persistent area of low pressure should remain between northern Argentina and Paraguay. During this period, a cold front advances through the south of Brazil and, subsequently, another front is organized associated with the formation of a cyclone near the coast of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

On Thursday (30), the cyclone should move away to the high seas, allowing the entry of a mass of cold air of polar origin, which temporarily reduces instability. However, the improvement should be short-lived: on the night of the 31st, atmospheric pressure falls again over northern Argentina, favoring the formation of new areas of rain and another extratropical cyclone at the turn of August.

Climatempo recommends that the population monitor weather forecast updates and follow the guidelines of Civil Defense and official bodies, especially in areas with a history of flooding and river overflows.

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